Risk Disclosure
No lawyer has reviewed this document. It was written by the people building EDGEDESK and must be reviewed, revised, and executed by an attorney licensed in the State of Florida before a single paid subscription is accepted. Nothing in it is legal advice to anyone.
Nothing is being sold against this version. Joining the early-access list does, however, record the acknowledgements ticked against these draft versions — set out in full in the Privacy Policy.
It is published now in the spirit of the product: nothing hidden, nothing surprising at checkout.
- You can lose money, and losing all of a position is normal here. Most event contracts settle at one dollar or at nothing — there is no partial credit for being nearly right.
- We find theories, not certainties. An estimate can be wrong, can go stale in minutes, or can rest on a rule we read differently than the exchange does.
- The exchange’s published rules decide what pays. We show that text on every market ticket exactly as the exchange wrote it. Read it before you trade.
- The Analyst is an AI. It can be fluent, confident, and wrong. It is one input beside your own judgment, never your adviser.
- Software that sends orders can send the wrong one. Section 11 lists every way we know of. Those losses are yours.
- Every order is yours. We never hold your money and never place a trade you did not authorize — including orders sent later by a setting you switched on.
- Size accordingly. Never trade money you cannot afford to lose — no sizing tool changes that.
- We name who is competing with you for the same fills — other subscribers, anyone else who reaches the same conclusion, and us, to whatever extent we trade these markets. Section 20 states the rule we hold ourselves to.
The sections below are the binding version, and this disclosure controls over the Subscriber Agreement — with one exception, running the other way. Section 22 of that Agreement lists what neither document limits: fraud, willful misconduct, gross negligence, and rights you hold under consumer-protection law. Section 22 controls over this disclosure, and nothing on this page reaches further than it allows. This summary exists so that none of it arrives as a surprise.
1. No guaranteed profits; no guaranteed edge
EDGEDESK identifies theories of potential mispricing. It does not identify certainties, and it does not promise that any edge exists at all.
An estimate we show may be wrong. It may reflect no true edge. It may have been right an hour ago and be worthless now. Nothing in the Service is a promise, prediction, or assurance of profit, and no figure it displays — edge, expected value, probability, verdict, or score — should be read as one. Past results do not guarantee future results.
2. You can lose the entire amount of any position
This is the ordinary case, not the bad case. An event contract that does not settle in your favor pays nothing — not a reduced amount, not a partial return. A position that was 90% likely to win and lost is worth zero, and it was not a mistake to be told it was 90% likely. Over enough trades, some of those happen; that is what a probability means.
Trade only with money you can afford to lose entirely. Do not trade with borrowed money, money you need, or money that has a job. No guard, cap, default, or sizing tool in this product changes any of this.
3. How these contracts pay, and why nearly right pays nothing
Event contractAn exchange-traded contract on whether a stated event happens. It settles at one dollar if the exchange determines the event occurred and at nothing if it did not, so a position that is nearly right still pays nothing. settle at a fixed amount or at zero, on the exchange’s determination of whether a stated event occurred. There is no partial credit, no recovery value, and no residual. Prices between one cent and ninety-nine cents look continuous but the outcome is binary.
Exchanges can also halt trading, extend a market, settle early, correct a settlement, or Voided marketA market the exchange cancels rather than settles, usually because the underlying event became unresolvable or the rules could not be applied. Trades are unwound at the exchange's discretion under its rulebook, and any profit you were showing simply disappears. entirely. A profit you were showing on screen can disappear because of a decision no one on either side of your trade controls.
4. The exchange’s rules decide what pays — not our display of them
Every contract settles on the rules the exchange publishes for that specific market: not on our summary, not on the Analyst’s reading, and not on what the market title appears to promise. EDGEDESK shows the exchange’s own settlement text on the market ticket as published, word for word, and the Analyst underwrites against that same text. Read it before you trade.
Where our display of a rule ever differs from the exchange’s, the exchange’s version is the one that pays. The exchange’s determinations — including corrections, extensions, early settlement, and voided markets — are final. An exchange may also amend or clarify a market’s rules after you have taken a position, and a rule that seemed unambiguous can be applied in a way you did not expect.
5. Liquidity: easier to get into than out of
Prediction-market books are thin. Liquidity and depthHow much size rests on the order book near the current price. Thin depth means your own order moves the price against you, and it means a position can be far easier to enter than to exit. at the price you see is often small, and it is not a promise that the size you want is available. Prices gap. Quotes vanish. Spreads widen exactly when you most want to trade.
A position is frequently far easier to enter than to exit. There may be no bid at all when you want out, and the only way to close may be at a price far worse than the screen suggested a moment earlier. Size a position on the assumption that you may have to hold it to settlement.
Displayed depth is a snapshot of a book that changes continuously, and other participants — including other subscribers — may take it before you.
6. Fees, spread, and slippage are real and they come out of the edge
The number on your screen is not the number in your account. Exchange fees, the bid-ask spread, partial fills, and SlippageThe gap between the price you saw and the price you actually got. On thin books it is the difference between a trade that looked profitable on screen and one that was not. all reduce what a trade returns, and on a thin book they can consume an entire theoretical edge and more. Fee and slippage estimates the Service shows are estimates; the exchange charges what it charges.
7. What a probability from us actually is
A probability, fair value, edge, or expected-value figure in this product is the output of an automated process applied to public data. It is an opinion expressed as a number. The precision of the display is not evidence of the accuracy of the estimate: a figure shown to one decimal place is not more reliable than one shown as a round number, and a confident-looking verdict is not a more reliable verdict.
These estimates can be wrong because a model is wrong, because an input is wrong, because the market knows something the model does not, because a rule was read differently than the exchange will read it, or because the world changed. They are not audited, not certified, and not guaranteed by anyone.
8. Staleness and speed
Every figure in the Service was computed at a moment that has already passed. Prices move between a computation and your reading of it, between your reading and your click, and between your click and the exchange. The Service labels how fresh a figure is; that label describes when it was computed, not that it is still true.
Data feeds can be delayed, interrupted, rate-limited, or wrong. A displayed edge may already be gone. In fast markets it usually is.
9. What the Analyst can and cannot know
The Analyst reads the market’s published rules, its live prices and book depth, and research gathered at the moment you run it. It does not know what has not been published, it can miss news that broke minutes ago, and it can read an ambiguous rule differently than the exchange eventually will.
It makes mistakes, including fluent, well-organized, confident-sounding ones. It can be wrong about a fact, wrong about a rule, or wrong about what matters, and none of those failures announce themselves in its tone. A verdict is a dated opinion, not a finding. Treat it as one input beside your own judgment, and read the exchange’s rules yourself before committing money.
10. Sizing tools do not reduce the risk of being wrong
Position sizing tools, including Kelly sizingA formula that turns your edge and your bankroll into a position size. It only ever repeats back the quality of what you feed it — if the probability you supply is wrong, the size it returns is wrong with the same confidence. defaults, manage the size of a bet. They do not improve the estimate behind it.
If the probability going in is wrong, the size coming out is wrong with exactly the same confidence, and it will look no less reasonable. Kelly sizing on an overstated edge is a formula for overbetting. These are calculators you operate on inputs you supply — including your own bankroll figure and your own probability — and they are not advice, not a suitability assessment, and not a recommendation.
11. Technology, execution, and orders you did not intend
Software that transmits orders can transmit the wrong one. This is stated in full here, and again in section 13 of the Subscriber Agreement, because it is the risk people discover latest and pay for most.
An order can be sent twice, sent late, or not sent at all. It can be sent at a price, size, side, or market other than the one you intended. A cancelation can arrive after a fill. An order can stay open at the exchange after you believe it is gone. Data behind a decision can be stale or wrong. A model output or a suggested size can be wrong. A bracket or stop can fire on a bad print — a single errant, fleeting trade price — or a momentary gap. An alert can arrive late or never. The Service can be slow or unavailable exactly during the volatility that made it worth having. Connectivity, exchange access, or an API key can fail at any time. And software contains defects that have not been found yet.
Losses from any of this are yours. We do not reimburse trading losses.
With the exception the Subscriber Agreement carves out, which controls over that sentence. Section 21 of that Agreement leaves direct damages from our own defective transmission of an order recoverable up to its cap — an order we sent that you never authorized, one sent at a size, side, price, or market other than the one you authorized, or an authorized cancelation we failed to send at all. And section 22 lists what neither document limits at any amount: fraud, willful misconduct, gross negligence, and rights you hold under consumer-protection law. Nothing on this page reaches further than section 22 allows.
The kill switch stops the Service from sending anything further, and deleting your API key does the same. Neither can recall an order the exchange has already accepted, and neither can unwind a fill. Canceling an open order is a request to the exchange, and the exchange may fill it first. Both are real protection against what happens next. Neither is protection against what already happened.
12. What can fire without you: standing authorizations
Some features can send, cancel, or change an order later without a further click from you at that moment — brackets, stops and take-profit exits, armed alerts that pre-stage an order, automatic cancels, and one-click sized execution on a signal. Each is off until you switch it on, each tells you on its own control exactly what it will do without asking again and how it can go wrong, and each can be switched off in the same place you found it.
Once one is on, it can act when you are not watching — overnight, during an outage on your side, while you are in another market, or in the seconds after a bad print. That is the point of the feature and it is also its risk. Review what you have switched on, and use the kill switch to revoke everything at once.
13. Reconcile against the exchange, not against us
The exchange’s record of your account is the authoritative one. Where anything the Service displays differs from it — a position, a balance, an order status, a fill price, a fee — the exchange is right and we are not. Keep independent access to your exchange account so you can cancel orders and close positions without us, check your fills there, and report any discrepancy promptly under section 14 of the Subscriber Agreement.
14. Capacity and crowding
Signal capacity is limited by real order-book depth; that is why Scanner seats are capped. The cap limits how many people share the feed. It is not a promise about your results. Other subscribers may act on the same information before you, the displayed edge may not be available by the time you trade, and a signal may not be tradeable in the size you want, at the price shown, or at all. Who else is competing for that depth — including us — is section 20.
15. Not investment advice; no adviser, broker, or fiduciary
Nothing on this platform is individualized investment, financial, trading, legal, accounting, or tax advice, and no advisory, brokerage, agency, or fiduciary relationship is created.
All outputs are automated analytical estimates produced for information only. They are generated by systems applied uniformly to public market data, not from any review of your finances, your objectives, your risk tolerance, or your needs, and no person at EDGEDESK reviews your circumstances. We make no determination that any market, direction, strategy, or size is suitable for you.
EDGEDESK is not a broker, dealer, futures commission merchant, introducing broker, commodity trading advisor, commodity pool operator, investment adviser, exchange, or clearing organization, and is not registered with the CFTC, the SEC, the NFA, or any state regulator in any capacity.
16. You are the trader
All orders are initiated by you, in your own exchange account, under your own agreement with that exchange — including orders sent by a standing authorization you switched on in advance. EDGEDESK is non-custodial: it never holds, receives, or controls your funds. Use of the platform is entirely at your own discretion and risk, and we accept no responsibility for trading outcomes, execution results, exchange availability, or data errors, except as section 22 of the Subscriber Agreement provides.
17. Legal, regulatory, and jurisdictional risk
Event-contract trading is a developing area of law. Rules about which contracts may be listed, who may trade them, and where, have changed and can change again — by regulation, by court decision, or by an exchange’s own choice. A market you hold can be delisted, restricted, or made unavailable to you, and a product that is lawful for you today may not be tomorrow.
Determining whether your trading is lawful where you are is yours to do, not ours. We do not give legal advice and do not confirm anyone’s eligibility. Check your exchange’s rules and your own position.
18. Taxes
Trading has tax consequences and they can differ from what you expect. EDGEDESK does not give tax advice, does not compute your tax position, and does not issue tax forms for your trading — your exchange is the source of your trading records. Journal, P&L, and calendar figures in the product are for your own use and are not tax documents. Talk to your own adviser.
19. Hypothetical and illustrative figures
Some figures the product shows are hypothetical — computed from prices and model output rather than from trades that happened. “EV identified” is the clearest example. Wherever a figure is hypothetical, it is labeled as hypothetical on its face.
A hypothetical figure was not necessarily achievable in live trading, and frequently would not have been. It does not account for the fill you would actually have received, the size actually available at that price, the fees you would have paid, the slippage on entry and exit — the price you saw versus the price you would have got — or the timing you could realistically have managed. It has the benefit of hindsight in a way real money never does. Do not read a hypothetical figure as a result, a return, or a forecast.
20. Conflicts of interest
The site says EDGEDESK is built by people who trade these markets, and it says the seat cap exists because book depth is finite. Both are true, and read together they describe a conflict. A conflict you were told about is worth more to you than one you have to find.
Everyone acting on the same information is competing for the same fills — other subscribers, anyone else who reaches the same conclusion independently, and us, to whatever extent we trade these markets.
That is the same fact the seat cap is built on. The size available at any price is finite, a signal shared by more participants is worth less to each of them, and whoever gets there first takes it. The cap limits how many people share the feed. It does not reserve any of that available size for you, and nothing in this product does.
Nothing is traded on a model output before that output has reached every seat entitled to see it.
Publication comes first. There is no early look, no staged release, and no internal window between the moment a signal card is finished and the moment it appears on the boards of the subscribers whose plan includes it. This is stated as a rule you may hold us to, not as a description of a habit.
[OPERATOR TRADING POLICY — whether EDGEDESK’s principals, employees, and affiliates trade the markets the Service covers at all, and any size, timing, or market limits that apply to it, is stated here in full before the first paid subscription is accepted. It is a question of fact about this operation, and it is left blank rather than guessed at.]
What we are paid, and by whom. EDGEDESK charges its subscribers for the Service: subscription fees, and flat-priced Analyst credit packs. Whether anything else reaches this operation in connection with your trading, your subscription, or what the Service shows you — payment for order flow, a rebate, a commission, a referral or affiliate fee, or compensation from an exchange, market maker, broker, or data vendor — is a question of fact about the arrangements actually in force, and it is answered here rather than assumed:
[COMPENSATION — every arrangement in force that pays this operation anything beyond subscription and credit revenue is listed here in full, or this states plainly that none exists, before the first paid subscription is accepted. It is a question of fact about this business, and it is left blank rather than guessed at, on the same footing as the operator trading policy above.]
We are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by any exchange. Whatever that blank comes to say, if it later changes, the change is disclosed here before it takes effect, not after.
What this section does not do. It does not promise that a signal is available in your size, at the price shown, or at all — section 14 says why. It does not make anyone your adviser or your fiduciary — section 15 governs that, and nothing in this section softens it.
21. Acknowledgment
By subscribing you affirm that you have read and understood this disclosure and the Subscriber Agreement, that you are able to bear the total loss of every position you take, and that you accept full responsibility for your trading decisions.
You further acknowledge that no edge or profit is guaranteed, that model outputs and probabilities are estimates that can be wrong or stale, that every order sent from your connected account is yours including one sent in error, and that EDGEDESK is software rather than a broker, adviser, or fiduciary.
Open items for counsel
Not part of the disclosure; present only while this document is a draft.
- Required risk language. Whether any prescribed risk-disclosure format or wording applies to a publisher of automated analysis on CFTC-regulated event contracts, and whether any of it must appear before purchase rather than on a linked page.
- Hypothetical performance. Section 19 is written to the concept of hypothetical results. Confirm whether a prescribed hypothetical-performance disclaimer is required for the figures the product actually shows, and where it must sit.
- Precedence. This disclosure is drafted to control over the Subscriber Agreement on risk, model output, and the absence of advice (Agreement section 3). Confirm that inversion is drafted correctly and is desirable.
- In-product placement. Which parts of this disclosure must appear inside the desk itself — beside a verdict, a probability, a sizing output, or an order control — rather than only on this page.
- Section 17. Whether the jurisdictional-risk language is adequate given the current state of event-contract regulation, and whether subscriber eligibility needs a gate rather than a representation.
- Section 20, the conflicts disclosure. The structural conflict and the publication-first rule are drafted. The factual scope of principal trading and the compensation arrangements in force are both blanks the owner must fill before the first sale — the compensation statement was previously drafted as an affirmative representation and has been reduced to a blank, because it asserted a fact about this business that nobody had verified against the arrangements actually in force. Confirm placement: whether any of section 20 must also sit at the point of sale rather than on this page, and note that the same representation still appears at the point of consent on the home page.