Risk Disclosure
Version 1.0.0 was reviewed and approved by counsel licensed in the State of Florida and took effect on September 23, 2026. Version 1.0.1 took effect on October 12, 2026 and changes one thing: former section 20 was removed and the Acknowledgment is now section 20. It is otherwise identical to 1.0.0. Version 1.0.2 took effect on October 12, 2026 and changes nothing in this document. It carries the new number so the three documents stay one set, after the Analyst credit rules in the Subscriber Agreement changed. It is otherwise identical to 1.0.1. Version 1.0.3 took effect on October 12, 2026 and changes these things. The plain-English summary and section 11 now describe software that prepared orders for you to place, because the desk at that time did not send, change or cancel an order. Section 11 now states the carve-out in the words of section 21 of the Subscriber Agreement. The last sentence of section 14 is removed. It pointed to the former section 20 and should have gone in 1.0.1. The Acknowledgment in section 20 now speaks of orders placed from your account. Section 12 now says the Service cannot send, cancel, or change an order at all. It no longer says it cannot do so without a further click from you. It is otherwise identical to 1.0.2. Version 1.1.0 took effect on October 13, 2026 and changes these things. The desk now sends orders, so the plain-English summary and sections 11, 12 and 16 describe software that sends the order you press to your own exchange account, signed in your browser with your own key. Section 11 now lists the risks of transmission: an order sent other than as shown, sent late, twice or not at all, filled in part or at a worse price because the book moved after you pressed, and a cancel that lands after the fill. Section 11 now states the carve-out in the words of section 21 of the Subscriber Agreement, which now covers an order sent wrongly as well as one shown wrongly. Section 12 now says the Service sends, cancels, amends or decreases an order only on your press, that nothing runs on a schedule that places orders, and that the kill switch stops every send and leaves Cancel working. It is otherwise identical to 1.0.3. Version 1.1.1 took effect on October 15, 2026 and changes nothing in this document. It carries the new number so the three documents stay one set, after the FULL DESK+ monthly allowance in the Subscriber Agreement changed to 3,500 credits. It is otherwise identical to 1.1.0. Version 1.1.2 took effect on October 15, 2026 and changes nothing in this document. It carries the new number so the three documents stay one set, after the consent gate in the Subscriber Agreement became one acknowledgment box. It is otherwise identical to 1.1.1. Version 1.1.3 took effect on October 15, 2026 and changes nothing in this document. It carries the new number so the three documents stay one set, after the Privacy Policy began to describe the mobile number asked for at sign-up and the optional marketing choice. It is otherwise identical to 1.1.2. Version 1.1.4 took effect on October 15, 2026 and changes nothing in this document. It carries the new number so the three documents stay one set, after the Privacy Policy began to list the name asked for at sign-up. It is otherwise identical to 1.1.3. Version 1.1.5 took effect on October 15, 2026 and changes nothing in this document. It carries the new number so the three documents stay one set, after the Subscriber Agreement described cancelation as two clicks. It is otherwise identical to 1.1.4. Version 1.1.6 took effect on October 21, 2026 and changes nothing in this document. It carries the new number so the three documents stay one set, after the Subscriber Agreement made the free trial 3 days. It is otherwise identical to 1.1.5. This is the version you accept at the consent gate, and the version whose fingerprint is written into your acceptance record.
Contents
- EVDESK is software, not a party to your trades. It sends the order you press to your own exchange account, signed in your browser with your own key, and mirrors that account back. It never decides to trade. To the maximum extent the law allows, EVDESK is not responsible for any trading error or loss.
- You can lose money, and losing all of a position is normal here. Most event contracts settle at one dollar or at nothing — there is no partial credit for being nearly right.
- We find theories, not certainties. An estimate can be wrong, can go stale in minutes, or can rest on a rule we read differently than the exchange does.
- The exchange’s published rules decide what pays. We show that text on every market ticket exactly as the exchange wrote it. Read it before you trade.
- The Analyst is an AI. It can be fluent, confident, and wrong. It is one input beside your own judgment, never your adviser.
- Software that sends orders can send the wrong one. Section 11 lists every way we know of. Those losses are yours.
- Every order is yours. We never hold your money or your key. The desk sends, amends or cancels an order only when you press the control for it, and the kill switch stops every send.
- Size accordingly. Never trade money you cannot afford to lose — no sizing tool changes that.
The sections below are the binding version, and this disclosure controls over the Subscriber Agreement — with one exception, running the other way. Section 22 of that Agreement lists what neither document limits: fraud, willful misconduct, gross negligence, and rights you hold under consumer-protection law. Section 22 controls over this disclosure, and nothing on this page reaches further than it allows. This summary exists so that none of it arrives as a surprise.
1. No guaranteed profits; no guaranteed edge
EVDESK identifies theories of potential mispricing. It does not identify certainties, and it does not promise that any edge exists at all.
An estimate we show may be wrong. It may reflect no true edge. It may have been right an hour ago and be worthless now. Nothing in the Service is a promise, prediction, or assurance of profit, and no figure it displays — edge, expected value, probability, verdict, or score — should be read as one. Past results do not guarantee future results.
2. You can lose the entire amount of any position
This is the ordinary case, not the bad case. An event contract that does not settle in your favor pays nothing — not a reduced amount, not a partial return. A position that was 90% likely to win and lost is worth zero, and it was not a mistake to be told it was 90% likely. Over enough trades, some of those happen; that is what a probability means.
Trade only with money you can afford to lose entirely. Do not trade with borrowed money, money you need, or money that has a job. No guard, cap, default, or sizing tool in this product changes any of this.
3. How these contracts pay, and why nearly right pays nothing
Event contractAn exchange-traded contract on whether a stated event happens. It settles at one dollar if the exchange determines the event occurred and at nothing if it did not, so a position that is nearly right still pays nothing. settle at a fixed amount or at zero, on the exchange’s determination of whether a stated event occurred. There is no partial credit, no recovery value, and no residual. Prices between one cent and ninety-nine cents look continuous but the outcome is binary.
Exchanges can also halt trading, extend a market, settle early, correct a settlement, or Voided marketA market the exchange cancels rather than settles, usually because the underlying event became unresolvable or the rules could not be applied. Trades are unwound at the exchange's discretion under its rulebook, and any profit you were showing simply disappears. entirely. A profit you were showing on screen can disappear because of a decision no one on either side of your trade controls.
4. The exchange’s rules decide what pays — not our display of them
Every contract settles on the rules the exchange publishes for that specific market: not on our summary, not on the Analyst’s reading, and not on what the market title appears to promise. EVDESK shows the exchange’s own settlement text on the market ticket as published, word for word, and the Analyst underwrites against that same text. Read it before you trade.
Where our display of a rule ever differs from the exchange’s, the exchange’s version is the one that pays. The exchange’s determinations — including corrections, extensions, early settlement, and voided markets — are final. An exchange may also amend or clarify a market’s rules after you have taken a position, and a rule that seemed unambiguous can be applied in a way you did not expect.
5. Liquidity: easier to get into than out of
Prediction-market books are thin. Liquidity and depthHow much size rests on the order book near the current price. Thin depth means your own order moves the price against you, and it means a position can be far easier to enter than to exit. at the price you see is often small, and it is not a promise that the size you want is available. Prices gap. Quotes vanish. Spreads widen exactly when you most want to trade.
A position is frequently far easier to enter than to exit. There may be no bid at all when you want out, and the only way to close may be at a price far worse than the screen suggested a moment earlier. Size a position on the assumption that you may have to hold it to settlement.
Displayed depth is a snapshot of a book that changes continuously, and other participants — including other subscribers — may take it before you.
6. Fees, spread, and slippage are real and they come out of the edge
The number on your screen is not the number in your account. Exchange fees, the bid-ask spread, partial fills, and SlippageThe gap between the price you saw and the price you actually got. On thin books it is the difference between a trade that looked profitable on screen and one that was not. all reduce what a trade returns, and on a thin book they can consume an entire theoretical edge and more. Fee and slippage estimates the Service shows are estimates; the exchange charges what it charges.
7. What a probability from us actually is
A probability, fair value, edge, or expected-value figure in this product is the output of an automated process applied to public data. It is an opinion expressed as a number. The precision of the display is not evidence of the accuracy of the estimate: a figure shown to one decimal place is not more reliable than one shown as a round number, and a confident-looking verdict is not a more reliable verdict.
These estimates can be wrong because a model is wrong, because an input is wrong, because the market knows something the model does not, because a rule was read differently than the exchange will read it, or because the world changed. They are not audited, not certified, and not guaranteed by anyone.
8. Staleness and speed
Every figure in the Service was computed at a moment that has already passed. Prices move between a computation and your reading of it, between your reading and your click, and between your click and the exchange. The Service labels how fresh a figure is; that label describes when it was computed, not that it is still true.
Data feeds can be delayed, interrupted, rate-limited, or wrong. A displayed edge may already be gone. In fast markets it usually is.
9. What the Analyst can and cannot know
The Analyst reads the market’s published rules, its live prices and book depth, and research gathered at the moment you run it. It does not know what has not been published, it can miss news that broke minutes ago, and it can read an ambiguous rule differently than the exchange eventually will.
It makes mistakes, including fluent, well-organized, confident-sounding ones. It can be wrong about a fact, wrong about a rule, or wrong about what matters, and none of those failures announce themselves in its tone. A verdict is a dated opinion, not a finding. Treat it as one input beside your own judgment, and read the exchange’s rules yourself before committing money.
10. Sizing tools do not reduce the risk of being wrong
Position sizing tools, including Kelly sizingA formula that turns your edge and your bankroll into a position size. It only ever repeats back the quality of what you feed it — if the probability you supply is wrong, the size it returns is wrong with the same confidence. defaults, manage the size of a bet. They do not improve the estimate behind it.
If the probability going in is wrong, the size coming out is wrong with exactly the same confidence, and it will look no less reasonable. Kelly sizing on an overstated edge is a formula for overbetting. These are calculators you operate on inputs you supply — including your own bankroll figure and your own probability — and they are not advice, not a suitability assessment, and not a recommendation.
11. Technology, execution, and orders you did not intend
Software that sends an order can send the wrong one, and it can be at the exchange before you notice. This is stated in full here, and again in section 13 of the Subscriber Agreement, because it is the risk people discover latest and pay for most.
An order the desk builds can be at a price, size, side, or market other than the one you intended, and it can be sent that way. The book can move between the moment you press and the moment the exchange receives the order, so it can fill at a worse price, fill in part, or not fill at all. A send can be delayed, dropped, or reported as failed when the exchange accepted it, and a cancel can land after the fill. A fill, a cancelation or a resting order that the desk mirrors back can arrive late, twice, or not at all, so the desk can show a position or balance that does not match the exchange’s own record. Data behind a decision can be stale or wrong. A model output or a suggested size can be wrong. A warning can arrive late or never. The Service can be slow or unavailable exactly during the volatility that made it worth having. Connectivity, exchange access, or a linked key can fail at any time. And software contains defects that have not been found yet.
Losses from any of this are yours. We do not reimburse trading losses.
With the exception the Subscriber Agreement carves out, which controls over that sentence. Section 21 of that Agreement leaves direct damages from our own defective preparation or transmission of an order recoverable up to its cap: an order our software showed you as correct at a size, side, price, or market other than the one it computed or you specified, or sent at a size, side, price, or market other than the one it showed you when you pressed. And section 22 lists what neither document limits at any amount: fraud, willful misconduct, gross negligence, and rights you hold under consumer-protection law. Nothing on this page reaches further than section 22 allows.
The kill switch stops the desk from sending anything further and leaves Cancel working; unlinking your key stops the mirror and every send. Neither can recall an order already at the exchange, and neither can unwind a fill. Canceling an open order is one press on the desk or an action at the exchange, and the exchange may fill it first. Both are real protection against what happens next. Neither is protection against what already happened.
12. Nothing fires without you
The Service sends, cancels, amends or decreases an order only when you press the control for it. One press, one order. It has no brackets, no automatic exits, no armed orders, and nothing that runs on a schedule and places orders; Watch re-runs research, not orders. The kill switch stops every send and leaves Cancel working. If a feature that can send, cancel, or change an order without a press from you is ever offered, it will be off by default, it will say on its own control exactly what it would do without asking again and how it could go wrong, and it will take effect only under a revised Subscriber Agreement you have accepted again.
What that means today: nothing acts on your account while you are not watching. The risks in this Service are a wrong number shown to you, a right number gone stale before you press, and an order sent other than as shown. None of them is an order sent behind your back.
13. Reconcile against the exchange, not against us
The exchange’s record of your account is the authoritative one. Where anything the Service displays differs from it — a position, a balance, an order status, a fill price, a fee — the exchange is right and we are not. Keep independent access to your exchange account so you can cancel orders and close positions without us, check your fills there, and report any discrepancy promptly under section 14 of the Subscriber Agreement.
14. Capacity and crowding
Signal capacity is limited by real order-book depth; that is why seats are capped. The cap limits how many people share the feed. It is not a promise about your results. Other subscribers may act on the same information before you, the displayed edge may not be available by the time you trade, and a signal may not be tradeable in the size you want, at the price shown, or at all.
15. Not investment advice; no adviser, broker, or fiduciary
Nothing on this platform is individualized investment, financial, trading, legal, accounting, or tax advice, and no advisory, brokerage, agency, or fiduciary relationship is created.
All outputs are automated analytical estimates produced for information only. They are generated by systems applied uniformly to public market data, not from any review of your finances, your objectives, your risk tolerance, or your needs, and no person at EVDESK reviews your circumstances. We make no determination that any market, direction, strategy, or size is suitable for you.
EVDESK is not a broker, dealer, futures commission merchant, introducing broker, commodity trading advisor, commodity pool operator, investment adviser, exchange, or clearing organization, and is not registered with the CFTC, the SEC, the NFA, or any state regulator in any capacity.
16. You are the trader
All orders are placed by you, from the desk, in your own exchange account, under your own agreement with that exchange. The Service transmits only the orders you press, and once an order is at the exchange it is subject to that exchange’s rules. EVDESK is non-custodial: it never holds, receives, or controls your funds. Use of the platform is entirely at your own discretion and risk, and we accept no responsibility for trading outcomes, execution results, exchange availability, or data errors, except as section 22 of the Subscriber Agreement provides.
17. Legal, regulatory, and jurisdictional risk
Event-contract trading is a developing area of law. Rules about which contracts may be listed, who may trade them, and where, have changed and can change again — by regulation, by court decision, or by an exchange’s own choice. A market you hold can be delisted, restricted, or made unavailable to you, and a product that is lawful for you today may not be tomorrow.
Determining whether your trading is lawful where you are is yours to do, not ours. We do not give legal advice and do not confirm anyone’s eligibility. Check your exchange’s rules and your own position.
18. Taxes
Trading has tax consequences and they can differ from what you expect. EVDESK does not give tax advice, does not compute your tax position, and does not issue tax forms for your trading — your exchange is the source of your trading records. Journal, P&L, and calendar figures in the product are for your own use and are not tax documents. Talk to your own adviser.
19. Hypothetical and illustrative figures
Some figures the product shows are hypothetical — computed from prices and model output rather than from trades that happened. “EV identified” is the clearest example. Wherever a figure is hypothetical, it is labeled as hypothetical on its face.
A hypothetical figure was not necessarily achievable in live trading, and frequently would not have been. It does not account for the fill you would actually have received, the size actually available at that price, the fees you would have paid, the slippage on entry and exit — the price you saw versus the price you would have got — or the timing you could realistically have managed. It has the benefit of hindsight in a way real money never does. Do not read a hypothetical figure as a result, a return, or a forecast.
20. Acknowledgment
By subscribing you affirm that you have read and understood this disclosure and the Subscriber Agreement, that you are able to bear the total loss of every position you take, and that you accept full responsibility for your trading decisions.
You further acknowledge that no edge or profit is guaranteed, that model outputs and probabilities are estimates that can be wrong or stale, that every order placed from your connected account is yours, including one placed in error, and that EVDESK is software rather than a broker, adviser, or fiduciary.