What a Kalshi price means
A Kalshi contract is a claim on one side of a yes-or-no question. If that side wins, the contract pays $1. If it loses, the contract pays nothing. Because the payout is fixed at $1, the price reads directly as a probability. Kalshi's own explainer on reading prices says a YES price of p cents implies a market probability of about p%.
Take a YES contract at 62c. You pay 62c. If YES wins, you collect $1, a profit of 38c. If NO wins, you lose the 62c. The market is putting YES at roughly 62% and NO at roughly 38%.
Every market has two sides, and they share the dollar. Kalshi's help center uses a market priced at 70c for YES and 30c for NO. The YES buyer and the NO buyer together put up $1, and whichever side wins collects it.
Three things sit between a quoted price and a usable probability.
- The number on a screen can be the bid, the ask, the midpoint or the last trade, and they often differ.
- A taker pays a fee on top of the price, which moves the break-even.
- The price is a consensus of traders with money at stake. Kalshi's help center says its price charts show the consensus beliefs of market participants and do not offer absolute probabilities.
Nearly every contract settles at $1 or $0, but a market's rules can set other values. Kalshi's help center gives the example of a combo whose legs do not all resolve to $1. How Kalshi settles a market covers those cases.
Kalshi prices as odds: the conversion table
The table converts common prices into implied probability, profit per contract and the three formats sportsbooks use. It leaves out the fee, which the fee section adds back.
| Price | Implied chance | Profit if it wins | Decimal odds | American odds | Fractional odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5c | 5% | 95c | 20.00 | +1900 | 19/1 |
| 10c | 10% | 90c | 10.00 | +900 | 9/1 |
| 20c | 20% | 80c | 5.00 | +400 | 4/1 |
| 25c | 25% | 75c | 4.00 | +300 | 3/1 |
| 30c | 30% | 70c | 3.33 | +233 | 7/3 |
| 40c | 40% | 60c | 2.50 | +150 | 3/2 |
| 50c | 50% | 50c | 2.00 | +100 | 1/1 |
| 60c | 60% | 40c | 1.67 | -150 | 2/3 |
| 70c | 70% | 30c | 1.43 | -233 | 3/7 |
| 75c | 75% | 25c | 1.33 | -300 | 1/3 |
| 80c | 80% | 20c | 1.25 | -400 | 1/4 |
| 90c | 90% | 10c | 1.11 | -900 | 1/9 |
| 95c | 95% | 5c | 1.05 | -1900 | 1/19 |
The table works the same way for NO. A NO contract at 30c prices a 30% chance that the event does not happen, and it converts exactly like a YES at 30c.
Whole-cent prices are valid on every Kalshi market. Kalshi's API documentation also lists price structures with finer ticks, down to a hundredth of a cent. So a price like 12.5c can appear on some markets. The Kalshi odds converter handles any price, fractions of a cent included.
How to convert cents to American, decimal and fractional odds
In each formula, P is the price in cents.
Decimal odds
Decimal odds give your total return for each $1 staked, with the stake included. At 62c, 100 / 62 = 1.61. Spend $62 on 100 contracts and a win returns $100, which is 1.61 times the stake.
American odds
Negative odds show how much you risk to win $100. Positive odds show how much a $100 stake wins. At 62c, -100 × 62 / 38 comes to -163. Risking $163 to win $100 is the same ratio as risking 62c to win 38c. At 25c, +100 × 75 / 25 is +300. At exactly 50c the odds are even, usually written +100.
Fractional odds
Fractional odds are profit over stake. 25c gives 75/25, which reduces to 3/1. 75c gives 25/75, or 1/3. Kalshi's explainer reads prices the same way and calls a 25c contract 3-to-1 odds to win 75c.
From a sportsbook line back to cents
A -150 line converts to 60c. A +200 line converts to 33.3c. Both figures still carry the bookmaker's margin. The sportsbook section below shows how to take it out before you compare.
How the fee moves your break-even
The conversion table assumes you pay exactly the price. A taker pays more. Kalshi's general trading fee is 0.07 × C × P × (1 - P), with C the number of contracts and P the price in dollars. On one YES contract at 62c, that is 0.07 × 0.62 × 0.38 = $0.016492. A direct Kalshi member's balance moves in steps of $0.0001, so the charge rounds up to 1.65c. Your all-in cost is 63.65c, so YES has to win 63.65% of the time for you to break even.
Run the conversions on the all-in cost and the odds get shorter. 62c reads as -163 before the fee and about -175 after it. In decimal terms, the return falls from 1.61 to 1.57.
| Price | Taker fee, one contract | All-in cost | Break-even chance | Decimal after fee | American after fee |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10c | 0.63c | 10.63c | 10.63% | 9.41 | +841 |
| 25c | 1.32c | 26.32c | 26.32% | 3.80 | +280 |
| 50c | 1.75c | 51.75c | 51.75% | 1.93 | -107 |
| 62c | 1.65c | 63.65c | 63.65% | 1.57 | -175 |
| 75c | 1.32c | 76.32c | 76.32% | 1.31 | -322 |
| 90c | 0.63c | 90.63c | 90.63% | 1.10 | -967 |
The table shows one contract bought by a direct Kalshi member. At 25c and 75c the formula gives 1.3125c, and the balance step lifts it to 1.32c. A larger order is rounded as a whole, so 100 contracts at 25c pay $1.3125 in fees. Members who clear through a futures commission merchant (FCM) have balances kept in whole cents, so a single contract can cost them up to a cent more.
The fee is largest in cents at 50c. As a share of the price it is largest on cheap contracts. At 10c it adds 6.3% to your cost, and at 90c it adds 0.7%.
Your role changes the fee. A resting order that someone else fills later pays nothing unless the series charges maker fees. Kalshi's help center says only some markets do. Where maker fees apply, they are a quarter of the taker rate. Kalshi also sets a fee multiplier for each series, so two markets at the same price can carry different fees. Kalshi fees explained covers maker fees, multipliers and rounding. The Kalshi fee calculator gives the fee and break-even for any price and size. When your own estimate differs from the price, the Kelly and EV calculator works out expected value and a position size from it.
Why YES and NO add up to more than $1
YES and NO trade in one order book. Kalshi's help center notes that a YES contract and a NO contract on the same market are together always worth $1. So a bid to buy YES at 71c is the same order as an offer to sell NO at 29c. Kalshi's API documentation states the rule directly: a YES bid at a price X is a NO ask at $1 minus X.
That makes the two asks mirror images of the two bids. Kalshi's help center illustrates its order book with a market where YES is bid at 71c and offered at 74c. NO is bid at 26c and offered at 29c.
Buy one YES and one NO at those asks and you pay 74c plus 29c. That is $1.03 for a pair that pays exactly $1. The extra 3c is the spread between the YES bid and the YES ask. Add a taker fee on each leg and the pair costs about $1.06. That is why the YES and NO prices on a screen rarely sum to exactly 100. Kalshi's explainer lists transaction costs and bid-ask spreads first among the reasons. Uneven trading on the two sides comes next.
The midpoint sits inside the spread. Here the YES midpoint is (71 + 74) / 2 = 72.5c, a 72.5% implied chance. The NO midpoint is (26 + 29) / 2 = 27.5c. The two midpoints always add up to $1.
Events with more than two outcomes
Many Kalshi events list one market per outcome, such as one per candidate or one per price range. Kalshi's API flags an event as mutually exclusive when at most one of its markets can settle YES. In such an event, fair YES prices add up to $1 or less. The asks usually add up to more, for the same reason as above.
Suppose three outcomes are offered at 52c, 31c and 21c. The total is $1.04. Divide each price by $1.04 for a rough fair share: 50.0%, 29.8% and 20.2%. That simple scaling assumes the extra 4c is spread in proportion to price. The expected value guide explains why the cheapest outcome can carry more than its share.
Ask, bid, midpoint or last trade
Kalshi's API reports several prices for every market, and each one answers a different question.
| Price | API field | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| YES ask | yes_ask_dollars | The lowest price anyone will sell YES for right now. A buyer who takes it pays this. |
| YES bid | yes_bid_dollars | The highest price anyone will pay for YES right now. A seller who takes it gets this. |
| Midpoint | Worked out from the bid and ask | A middle estimate of the market's view. |
| Last trade | last_price_dollars | The price of the most recent YES trade, however long ago it happened. |
For a trade you place now, the ask is the price that counts when you buy and the bid when you sell. The midpoint is the best single read on the market's view when the spread is tight. The last trade is the weakest of the four, because the book can move after it prints.
Suppose a thin market last traded at 40c this morning. Since then the best bid has dropped to 31c and the best ask sits at 45c. The last trade says 40%. The midpoint says 38%. A buyer would pay 45c and a seller would get 31c. A 14c spread means the market has no firm view anywhere between 31% and 45%.
Each quote holds only for the contracts resting at it. If 40 contracts sit at the ask and the next offer is 3c higher, contract 41 costs 3c more. Its implied odds are 3 points worse. How to read the Kalshi order book walks through bids, asks and depth in detail.
Kalshi prices next to sportsbook lines
A sportsbook sets its own prices and builds its margin into them. A common line is -110 on both sides, which implies 52.38% for each side. Together they add up to 104.76%. The 4.76 points above 100% are the overround. That is how the bookmaker's margin shows up in the odds. Bettors often call that margin the vig.
To compare a sportsbook line with a Kalshi price, take that margin out first. Divide each side's implied chance by the total. For -110 on both sides, that gives 50% each. For a -150 favorite against a +130 underdog, the raw figures are 60% and 43.5%. Together they make 103.5%. Scaled down, they come to 58.0% and 42.0%.
On Kalshi, other traders set the price. The CFTC staff letter makes the same point. An exchange that lists event contracts does not control the price. The price comes out of competitive bidding among participants. What you pay above a fair price is the spread plus the fee. Take an evenly matched game where YES is bid at 50c and offered at 51c.
| How the position is opened | Break-even chance | Cost above a 50% fair price |
|---|---|---|
| Sportsbook bet at -110 | 52.38% | 2.38 points |
| Kalshi taker, buys at the 51c ask | 52.75% | 2.75 points |
| Kalshi maker, bid fills at 50c on a series with maker fees | 50.44% | 0.44 points |
| Kalshi maker, bid fills at 50c on a series without maker fees | 50.00% | 0 points |
In this example, a Kalshi taker pays slightly more than a -110 bettor. A resting bid pays far less if it fills. It fills only when a seller comes down to it, and the price can move away first. Spreads also differ from market to market. A buyer who pays the ask on a 4c spread pays 2c above the midpoint. That is more than the taker fee at any price. So run the numbers on the book in front of you. EVDESK's sports market index covers Kalshi's season-long sports markets, such as champions and awards.
You can also close a Kalshi position before settlement by selling it. A sale now fills at the bid and pays the taker fee at the sale price. Selling a Kalshi contract before settlement works through the exit math.
Questions traders ask
What do the cents on a Kalshi market mean?
The cents are the price of one contract that pays $1 if its side wins. Because the payout is $1, the price reads as the market's implied chance. A YES price of 35c means traders put the outcome at roughly 35%, and a buyer risks 35c to make 65c.
How do I convert a Kalshi price to American odds?
For a price P in cents above 50, American odds are -100 × P / (100 - P). Below 50, they are +100 × (100 - P) / P. So 62c converts to about -163 and 25c to +300. To see a taker's real odds, add the fee to the price before you convert.
Why do the YES and NO prices add up to more than 100?
Each ask sits above the fair price by part of the spread. With a YES ask of 74c and a NO ask of 29c, the pair costs $1.03 and the spread is 3c. Fees raise the cost of holding both sides further. The midpoints of the two sides always add up to exactly $1.
Is a Kalshi price the true probability?
It is the market's consensus estimate, set by traders with money at stake. Kalshi's help center says its price charts show the consensus beliefs of market participants and do not offer absolute probabilities. Thin markets with wide spreads are the least reliable. The midpoint of a tight market is the best single reading, and your own estimate can differ from it.
Does the Kalshi price include the fee?
The price is the cost of the contract alone. A taker pays a fee on top, worked out as 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 - price) under Kalshi's general fee schedule. At 50c that adds 1.75c per contract for a direct Kalshi member, so the break-even chance is 51.75% where the bare price says 50%.
How much does a Kalshi contract pay out?
A contract on the winning side pays $1 at settlement, and the losing side pays nothing. Your profit is $1 minus the price you paid, minus the fee. A few cases, such as combos whose legs do not all resolve to $1, pay other amounts under the market's rules.
Sources
- Kalshi Help Center, What are prediction markets? (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
- Kalshi Help Center, How are prices determined? (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
- Kalshi Help Center, Buying Yes vs Selling No (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
- Kalshi Help Center, The Orderbook (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
- Kalshi Help Center, Price Graph (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
- Kalshi Help Center, Market FAQs (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
- Kalshi Help Center, Fees (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
- Kalshi Help Center, Closing or Modifying a Position (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
- Kalshi News, How to translate Kalshi market prices into real-world odds and probabilities, March 12, 2026 (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
- Kalshi, Fee Schedule (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
- Kalshi API documentation, Fee Rounding (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
- Kalshi API documentation, Get Series (fee_type and fee_multiplier) (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
- Kalshi API documentation, Orderbook Responses (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
- Kalshi API documentation, Get Market (bid, ask and last price fields) (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
- Kalshi API documentation, Get Event (mutually_exclusive) (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
- Kalshi API documentation, Fixed-Point Representation (price levels and ticks) (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
- CFTC Press Release 9278-26, CFTC Reminds Markets to Display Clear Pricing Information, August 7, 2026 (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
- CFTC Division of Market Oversight and Market Participants Division, staff letter on Misleading or Deceptive Practices, released August 7, 2026 (accessed Oct 19, 2026)