How Kalshi settles a market

What happens between the last trade and the payout

Every Kalshi market uses the same statuses, and the public API reports the current one. It tells you what you can still do with a position.

Two details matter most. The first is the close. Once the close time passes, Kalshi rejects every order action, including cancellations. It also cancels resting orders shortly after. Any exit has to happen before the close. The guide to selling before settlement covers that exit.

The second is the settlement timer. Kalshi sets one for each market. You can see it in the market's details, and in the API as settlement_timer_seconds. A determined result can still be disputed until it ends. After that, Kalshi pays out positions and the status becomes finalized. The market also gets a settlement_ts timestamp.

Close time, expected expiration and latest expiration

Each market carries three timestamps in the API.

• close_time is when trading stops. Kalshi can move it earlier if can_close_early is true.
• expected_expiration_time is when the outcome should be known.
• latest_expiration_time is the latest the market can expire after a delay.

An economic data market closes before the number exists. Under the CPI contract terms, trading stops at 8:29 AM ET on the day of the scheduled release. That is a minute before the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes at 8:30 AM ET. The latest expiration is three months after the scheduled release.

A football game market runs the other way. Under the football contract terms, trading runs until expiration. The latest expiration is one week after the game, which leaves room for a delay. Expiration moves earlier once "a winner is reported or the game concludes with a tie."

Rule 7.2(c) of the rulebook allows that early finish. If a value in the payout criterion occurs before the expiration date, Kalshi may move expiration earlier. The contract terms then set settlement no later than the day after expiration, unless the outcome is under review under Rule 7.1.

How long Kalshi takes to pay out

Kalshi's help center says most markets settle within a few hours of the outcome being known, often within about three hours. Winnings land in your cash balance, ready to trade or withdraw. Three things stretch that window.

1. The rules set a later determination time. A daily temperature market waits for the next morning's report, and the 2026 House control market can run to February 1, 2027.
2. The source is late or revised. Kalshi waits for the named source to publish final data.
3. The settlement timer. Kalshi sets it per market and shows it in the market's details. It can be short or long, and the result can be disputed while it runs. Kalshi's documentation says timing varies with the market type, the data source and any manual review.

Say an event ended more than about 12 hours ago with no update, and the rules list no later determination time. The help center then points you to in-app chat. The help center also says bank withdrawals carry no fee. They typically arrive within a few business days.

How to read a settlement clause

Every market has a one-sentence primary rule and a longer secondary block. In the API these are the rules_primary and rules_secondary fields. The app shows a summary first. Kalshi's help center notes that the summary leaves text out. The full clause sits under "View full rules."

An economic data clause

Take a CPI market with a 0.3% strike. The CPI contract terms pay Yes on values "strictly greater than" the strike, read for a named month. Three details in those terms decide the trade.

• Strictly greater than. A print of exactly 0.3% resolves No.
• One decimal. The value is the one-decimal monthly change in seasonally adjusted CPI-U that BLS publishes. It usually appears in the release's first sentence. A two-decimal figure you compute from index levels is not the value the contract reads.
• The statistical month. An October market reads October's change. The number comes out in November.

The terms also cover a failure case. If no data is available at the expiration time, the value is computed from the last available index level and the level 12 months earlier. Revisions made after expiration are excluded, so a later BLS revision does not reopen a settled market.

A weather clause

Under the weather contract terms, a daily high market reads the highest officially reported temperature at the station the market names. Only the first official non-preliminary report counts, at the full precision the source reports. Rounding by media outlets or third-party summaries does not affect the result. If no data arrives by expiration, every strike resolves to the last fair price as Kalshi determines it.

Kalshi's help center names the National Weather Service climate report for daily temperature markets. The contract terms list The Weather Company first and the National Weather Service second. Check which source a market's own rules name.

Settlement by market type

The source, the reading and the fallback change by category. These examples come from Kalshi's contract terms as published on October 19, 2026.

Missing Bitcoin index data resolves No, while missing weather data goes to a fair price. The election settlement guide covers media calls, certification and the Speaker rule in detail. Event pages under economics, sports, crypto and elections quote Kalshi's primary rule.

Ties, postponements and fair price

A market does not always pay $1 or $0. Kalshi's API labels a split result scalar: each side receives part of the dollar. Many sports and weather clauses call for one.

A tie is the cleanest case. The football contract terms say that when no Tie strike is listed, a tie pays $0.50 to YES holders and $0.50 to NO holders. Their own example is a 20-20 game after overtime, with each team's market resolving to $0.50.

Suppose you bought 100 YES on one team at 58c, and your counterparty held NO at 42c. The contract terms pay $0.50 to both sides, so before fees the tie works out like this.

Postponements run on a clock. A game that starts within 48 hours of its original time stays open and settles on the official result. Otherwise the market resolves to "the last fair market price as determined by Kalshi." The football contract terms treat two other cases the same way. One is a game suspended before 55 minutes of play and not resumed within 48 hours. The other is a forfeit before kickoff.

Rule 6.3(c) covers cases a clause does not address. Under it, Kalshi "may use the last traded price of the Contract to determine the payout." If none exists or none is fair, the Outcome Review Committee makes a binding allocation.

Combos multiply leg values. In Kalshi's help center example, two legs pay $1.00 and one settles at $0.70.

The death rule and the last traded price

Since March 17, 2026, Rule 6.3(e) has covered markets built around a person. If the market's primary subject "dies prior to Expiration," Kalshi may settle at "the last traded price prior to the death." If trading had already reacted to the circumstances leading to the death, Kalshi may use the last price before they became known. If no traded price is fair, the Outcome Review Committee sets one. Kalshi may also halt trading when it reasonably believes a death has occurred or is imminent.

Kalshi filed the amendment with the CFTC on March 2, 2026. Kalshi called it a codification of existing practice. It followed Kalshi's market on whether Iran's Supreme Leader would leave office. The Block reported that after his death on February 28, 2026, Kalshi halted trading and settled the contracts at the last traded price before the death.

A hypothetical shows the arithmetic. You hold 200 YES at 25c on a "leaves office by June 30" market. The subject dies, and the last trade before the death printed 31c. Under Rule 6.3(e) you receive 31c per contract. That is $62 against a $50 cost, before fees. A NO holder who paid 75c receives 69c.

Disputes and outcome review

A determined result can be challenged while the settlement timer runs. The API then shows the market as disputed. If the result changes, it shows amended, and the timer starts again before anyone is paid.

In the app, each market's options menu has a Request to Settle option. You pick the strike or strikes you believe should settle, and Kalshi's markets team reviews the request. For other settlement questions, the help center asks you to check the market's rules first and then use in-app chat. It also says markets are not re-settled because an event appeared to end while trading was still open.

The formal route is the Market Outcome Review Process in Rule 7.1. Kalshi may start it before settlement, at its discretion. One example is when something affects the reliability of the underlying data. Kalshi then posts that the outcome is under review. The Outcome Review Committee decides within 24 hours. The Regulatory Oversight Committee appoints its three members. At least two are Public Directors. Settlement happens on the day it decides, and its decision is final.

Events with many strikes

A CPI event lists a ladder of strikes for one month, and one BLS number settles all of them.

When an event's mutually_exclusive flag is true, its collateral_return_type is MECNET and at most one of its markets can resolve Yes. Otherwise the type is DIRECNET (directional netting) or empty. Then several strikes can resolve Yes together, as on a CPI ladder. Kalshi settles net positions after netting.

Suppose you hold 100 YES on "more than 0.2%" and 100 NO on "more than 0.3%," and BLS prints 0.3%. The first market resolves Yes because 0.3 is more than 0.2. The second resolves No because 0.3 does not exceed 0.3. Both legs pay $1 per contract, $200 in total. A print of 0.4% would pay only the first leg, and a print of 0.2% only the second. What the pair is worth depends on what you paid. The EV and Kelly calculator and the expected value guide cover that.

A rules checklist before you trade

1. Open "View full rules" and find the exact comparison word: more than, at least, above or between.
2. Find the named source and check that you can see the same figure from the same publisher.
3. Note the reading time and time zone.
4. Compare the close time with the expected and latest expiration. In a delay, capital stays tied up until the latest one.
5. Find the fallback for a tie, a postponement, missing data and a death. Work out what your position pays in each.
6. Check whether the event is mutually exclusive before holding more than one of its markets.

The prediction market glossary defines the terms used here. The fees guide covers what a trade costs before it reaches settlement.

Questions traders ask

How long does Kalshi take to pay out?

Kalshi's help center says most markets pay within a few hours of the outcome being known, often within about three hours. Winnings go to your cash balance. A later determination time in the rules, a delayed source or an outcome review can stretch that.

Can a Kalshi market close early?

Yes, when the market's can_close_early flag is true. Rule 7.2(c) lets Kalshi move expiration earlier once a value in the payout criterion occurs, such as a winner being declared. After the close, Kalshi rejects new orders and cancellations, so any exit has to happen before that point.

What happens on Kalshi if an NFL game ends in a tie?

When no Tie market is listed, each team's market pays $0.50 per contract to both YES and NO holders. Kalshi's football contract terms say so. If a Tie market is listed, it resolves Yes and the team markets resolve No.

What happens if the subject of a Kalshi market dies?

Rule 6.3(e) has been in effect since March 17, 2026. Under it, Kalshi may settle at the last traded price before the death. If trading was already reacting, Kalshi may use an earlier price. If no traded price is fair, the Outcome Review Committee sets one. Kalshi may also halt trading.

Can I dispute a Kalshi settlement?

A result can be disputed while its settlement timer runs. The API then marks the market disputed. In the app, Request to Settle sends a market to Kalshi's markets team. The help center routes settlement questions to in-app chat. Under Rule 7.1, Kalshi can also send an outcome to the Outcome Review Committee, which decides within 24 hours. Its decision is final.

Where do I find a Kalshi market's settlement rules?

On the market page, open the rules summary and select "View full rules." Through the API, the rules_primary and rules_secondary fields hold the clause, and each series links its contract terms PDF. The full rules include the source, the timing and the fallbacks.

Sources

• Kalshi API documentation, Market Lifecycle (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Kalshi API documentation, Market Settlement (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Kalshi API documentation, Get Market: status, times, rules fields and settlement_timer_seconds (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Kalshi API documentation, Get Event: mutually_exclusive and collateral_return_type (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Kalshi Help Center, Market FAQs (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Kalshi Help Center, Rules Summary (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Kalshi Help Center, Request to Settle Market (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Kalshi Help Center, Weather Markets (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Kalshi Help Center, Bank Withdrawals (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• KalshiEX LLC Rulebook, version 1.29: Rules 2.7, 6.3, 7.1 and 7.2 (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• KalshiEX LLC filing to the CFTC amending Rule 6.3, March 2, 2026 (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Kalshi contract terms, FOOTBALLGAMEWIN (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Kalshi contract terms, CPI (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Kalshi contract terms, GLOBALTEMPERATURE (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Kalshi contract terms, BTC (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Kalshi contract terms, CONTROL (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• The Block, coverage of Kalshi's Iran leadership market and its February 28, 2026 settlement (accessed Oct 19, 2026)