How Kalshi election markets settle

Two ways an election market pays

Kalshi's main US election contracts each have two possible end points. One runs on media calls. The other runs on an official event written into the contract terms. Which one fires decides whether you are paid days after the vote or months later.

The fast route is the accelerated clause. It sits in the contract terms for Senate, House, governor, chamber-control and margin markets. A market may resolve early when "at least four (4) of the eight (8) Designated Media Sources" have declared a winner. It also needs none of the eight to have issued a contradictory declaration. The eight are The New York Times, the Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ, CNN, Fox News, NBC News, CBS News and ABC News.

A declaration counts when a source's central decision desk makes a formal projection. It also counts when a news article states without ambiguity that the candidate or party has won. A network and its local affiliates count as one source. The national desk overrides an affiliate. One contradictory call from any of the eight blocks the route, even if the other seven agree.

The slow route is the market's own end point. For a seat, that is the swearing-in. For control of a chamber, it is the party of the chamber's leader on February 1. For a margin, it is the certified count. If the media test never passes, the market waits for that point. Race and margin markets allow up to a year after the vote. Kalshi's midterm announcement of October 6, 2026 describes the same two routes.

What each election market reads

The 2026 midterm markets fall into a handful of contract types. Each type has its own fact to read and its own fallback date. The dates follow Kalshi's contract terms as published on October 19, 2026, and are in Eastern Time. Each event page under election markets prints the market's main rule.

Once a market is determined, a settlement timer runs. The result can be disputed until it ends. Kalshi sets the timer per market and shows it in the market's details. It can be short or long. Then winning contracts pay $1 each. There is no settlement fee on a plain yes or no result.

A determined market is already closed. After the close, Kalshi rejects every order action, including cancellations. Any exit has to happen before the market closes. The settlement guide covers each status in order.

Race markets pay on the party

Senate, House and governor markets display candidate names, but the contract pays on the party. The Senate race terms look at "the first candidate who presents a certificate of election" for the seat and is sworn in for the new term. If that person belongs to the named party, the market pays Yes. Three clauses in the terms follow from that.

• A replacement keeps the payout. If the winner resigns before being seated, the market pays on the party of the first person sworn in to the seat, temporary or permanent.
• A late party switch does not count. If the winner announces a change of party between election day and the swearing-in, the market resolves on the election-day party.
• Independents are named. When Kalshi lists an Independent outcome, the terms tie it to a specific person.

These clauses matter only while a market is open. Once a race has settled on media calls and finalized, a later resignation or party switch changes nothing.

Seats-won markets use their own counting test, written into each market's rules. Check how a seat is counted before you trade one. The seats-held markets work differently. Under their contract terms they read each chamber's makeup at 10:00 AM ET on February 1, 2027. A member who caucuses with a party counts with it.

Chamber control and the February 1 test

The control contract terms let the 2026 House and Senate markets resolve early once at least four of the eight Designated Media Sources declare a winning party and none contradicts them. Without that consensus, the House market reads the party of the Speaker at 10:00 AM ET on February 1, 2027. The Senate market reads the party of the President pro tempore at the same moment. The named source is congress.gov.

That Senate test has a consequence in a close year. A 50-50 split does not settle the market on its own. The market pays on the party of the senator holding the President pro tempore post on February 1. The contract terms also say the exchange will consider the caucus decisions of Independent members.

Recounts, runoffs and legal challenges

A race fails the media test while fewer than four desks will call it, or while one desk calls it the other way. Kalshi says a race that goes to a recount or faces a legal challenge stays open until the winner is sworn in. For a 2026 Senate or House seat, the market then expires at the first 10:00 AM ET after the swearing-in. That is normally soon after the new Congress meets in early January 2027. A seat still in dispute then stays open longer, up to a year after the vote: November 3, 2027.

Runoffs push the calls later. Georgia has scheduled a general election runoff for December 1, 2026, if one is needed. A race headed there has no winner to declare on November 3, so its market stays open at least until the runoff is counted and called.

Two rulebook provisions sit behind every one of these markets. Rule 7.2(b) lets Kalshi move the expiration date if something prevents the result from being determined accurately, such as delayed data from a source. Rule 7.1 lets Kalshi send an outcome to the Outcome Review Committee before settlement. The committee decides within 24 hours, and its decision is final.

Margin and popular vote markets

Margin of victory markets settle on certified results. Preliminary and unofficial counts do not decide them. The margin is the vote share of the named party or candidate minus another share. If it wins, that is the next finisher's share. If it loses, it is the winner's share, so a losing margin is negative. Nothing is rounded. Each range includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound. The terms give the example: with ranges of 5 to 6 and 6 to 7 points, a margin of 5.99999 falls in the first and exactly 6 falls in the second.

Suppose a strike pays Yes if Party A wins by 6 points or more. The certified count shows Party A at 52.90% and Party B at 46.91%. The margin is 5.99 points, so the strike resolves No. A recount that certifies 6.00 or more would flip it, but only if it lands before the market expires. Revisions after expiration are ignored. These markets can also expire early once certified results are published.

A margin strike can still resolve before certification, strike by strike, under the same four-of-eight test. If the desks call the race for Party B, every strike that needs Party A to win can no longer pay. Those strikes can resolve No early. Strikes on the size of the margin need a declaration that the margin itself has been determined. The terms say statements that an outcome is "leading," "on course" or "likely" do not qualify.

If an election was fully held but its results are annulled or never certified by expiration, the market resolves on the latest unofficial count covering at least 95% of the votes cast.

The House popular vote margin markets read the gap between the parties' shares of the national House vote from the source the market names. Their terms use the first official release and ignore later revisions. If no data is released by expiration, the market goes to the last fair price determined by Kalshi. The latest expiration is three months after the scheduled release.

One race, two payout dates

The numbers here are illustrative. Suppose you buy 200 YES on Party A in a Senate race at 62c. That reads as a 62% implied chance. The odds converter turns that into American odds. You pay $124.00 for the contracts, plus a trading fee charged when the order fills. Party A wins in both paths below.

The payout is $200 either way. What changes is how long $124 sits in one position: 62 days instead of 2. The price is free to swing while the recount runs. If Party B wins, you lose the $124 plus the fee in both paths.

In the recount path you can still leave before the close by selling at the bid. That sale is a new trade with its own fee. The guide to selling before settlement works through that exit. The fee calculator prices either leg, and the EV and Kelly calculator sizes the position.

How recent election markets paid

The 2024 presidential market ran the slow way. Semafor reported on November 6, 2024 that Kalshi would not close it until Inauguration Day on January 20, 2025. That was more than two months after the vote. The 2026 contract terms for race, control and margin markets include the four-of-eight media route. A race that four desks call, with none disagreeing, can pay well before anyone is sworn in. The terms set no fixed delay between the fourth call and settlement.

The 2026 settlement calendar

Checks before trading an election market

1. Open the market's full rules and confirm what it reads: the party sworn in, the chamber leader, a certified margin, a count of calls or the seats held on a date.
2. Note the latest expiration. A race that misses the media test can hold your money until then.
3. Check whether the race can go to a runoff, and when the runoff is scheduled.
4. On margin markets, note which end of each range is inclusive.

The glossary defines the terms used here, and the guide to Kalshi odds covers how a price maps to a probability.

Questions traders ask

When does Kalshi pay out election markets?

Most US election markets can pay once at least four of eight named news organizations call the race and none disagrees. Winning contracts then pay $1 each once the market's settlement timer runs out. If the calls never line up, the market waits for the swearing-in, the February 1 leader test or certified results.

Does Kalshi wait for certification to settle election markets?

Not on the media-call route. Race and control markets can settle on four of eight calls before any result is certified. Certification matters in two places. A Senate or House market's fallback reads the first winner who presents a certificate of election and is sworn in. Margin markets settle on certified vote shares, though the desks' calls can resolve some strikes early.

What happens to a Kalshi election market in a recount?

It stays open. Kalshi says a race that goes to a recount or faces a legal challenge remains open until the winner is sworn in. On margin markets, a recount counts if its certified figure arrives before the market expires. Revisions made after expiration are ignored.

Which news organizations count for Kalshi election calls?

The eight Designated Media Sources are The New York Times, the Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ, CNN, Fox News, NBC News, CBS News and ABC News. At least four must declare a winner and none may contradict them. A network and its affiliates count as one source.

How does Kalshi decide which party controls the Senate?

By the party of the President pro tempore at 10:00 AM ET on February 1, 2027, unless a consensus of media calls settles the market earlier. The House market reads the party of the Speaker at the same time. Without a media consensus, the seat count matters only through who holds those two posts.

What if a winning candidate leaves before taking office?

The market pays on the party. If a Senate, House or governor winner resigns before being seated, the terms pay on the party of the first person sworn in to the seat. If the winner switches parties before the swearing-in, the election-day party counts.

Sources

• Kalshi contract terms, SENATEPARTY: Senate race markets (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Kalshi contract terms, HOUSEPARTY: House race markets (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Kalshi contract terms, GOVPARTY: governor race markets (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Kalshi contract terms, CONTROL: House and Senate control (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Kalshi contract terms, ELECTIONMOV: margin of victory (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Kalshi contract terms, POLITICALSTAT: seats won and popular vote margin (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Kalshi contract terms, SEATSCONGRESS: seats held (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Kalshi News, "Amidst Record Growth in Election Markets, Kalshi Launches New Transparency Features for Midterm Elections," October 6, 2026 (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• KalshiEX LLC Rulebook, version 1.29: Rules 7.1 and 7.2 (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Kalshi API documentation, Market Lifecycle (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Kalshi API documentation, Market Settlement (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Kalshi API documentation, Get Market: settlement_timer_seconds and market times (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Semafor, "Prediction markets take a victory lap after Trump win," November 6, 2024 (accessed Oct 19, 2026)
• Georgia.gov, Election Day: General Election Runoff, December 1, 2026 (accessed Oct 19, 2026)