Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026
Justin Gaethje leads at 89%, followed by Arman Tsarukyan at 6% and Alexander Volkanovski at 2%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
Justin GaethjeYes 89c · No 12c
89%Arman TsarukyanYes 6c · No 95c
6%Alexander VolkanovskiYes 3c · No 99c
2%Ilia TopuriaYes 2c · No 99c
2%Paddy PimblettYes 1c
<1%Charles OliveiraYes 1c
<1%Max HollowayYes 1c
<1%Islam MakhachevYes 1c
<1%Mauricio RuffyYes 1c
<1%Benoit Saint-DenisYes 1c
<1%Show 2 more outcomes
Dan HookerYes 1c
<1%Mateusz GamrotYes 1c
<1%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the chances can add up to more than 100%.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Justin Gaethje.
Kalshi’s ruleJustin Gaethje
If Justin Gaethje is the UFC Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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