How low will Bitcoin get in 2026?
No strike crosses 50%. The closest is Below $55,000 at 14%, from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes at each strikeChance
Below $40,000Yes 5c · No 96c
5%Below $45,000Yes 8c · No 94c
7%Below $50,000Yes 11c · No 90c
11%Below $55,000Yes 14c · No 87c
14%Each strike is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Strikes run low to high.
What settles it.
Every strike uses the same rule with its own number in it. The rule below is for Below $55,000.
Kalshi’s ruleBelow $55,000
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $55000.00 starting Feb 5, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
More crypto markets.
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