Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin before 2027?

Kalshi's prices put the chance of Yes at 5%.

Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.

Chance of Yes, from Kalshi’s pricesYes or No market
5%
Yes costs
5c
No costs
96c
A Yes contract pays $1 if the market settles Yes and nothing if it settles No. The chance is the midpoint of the best bid and offer in Kalshi’s public order book.

What settles it.

This market has one rule, shown below.

Kalshi’s ruleYes or No
If any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.

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EVDESK is research and trading software. It is not a broker, not an exchange, not a fund and not investment advice. Prices and chances on this page are read from Kalshi’s public market data at the time shown and move constantly. Prediction-market trading can lose money. See the Risk Disclosure. Not affiliated with Kalshi, Inc.