Who will be arrested in 2026?
John Brennan leads at 30%, followed by Ilhan Omar at 29% and Mahmoud Khalil (After 9/6/25) at 15%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
John BrennanYes 31c · No 71c
30%Ilhan OmarYes 29c · No 72c
29%Mahmoud Khalil (After 9/6/25)Yes 16c · No 87c
15%Letitia JamesYes 8c · No 93c
8%Susan RiceYes 10c · No 95c
8%James ClapperYes 7c · No 93c
7%Anthony FauciYes 6c · No 94c
6%Lisa CookYes 6c · No 95c
6%Tom HomanYes 6c · No 95c
6%Lee Jun-seokYes 9c · No 98c
6%Show 15 more outcomes
Barack ObamaYes 7c · No 97c
5%Benjamin NetanyahuYes 5c · No 96c
5%Lee Jae MyungYes 6c · No 97c
5%Hillary ClintonYes 5c · No 97c
4%Adam SchiffYes 6c · No 98c
4%José Luis Rodríguez ZapateroYes 4c · No 97c
4%Candace OwensYes 6c
3%Gavin NewsomYes 3c · No 98c
3%Bill ClintonYes 3c · No 98c
3%Pam BondiYes 3c · No 98c
3%Loretta LynchYes 3c · No 98c
3%John KerryYes 3c · No 98c
3%Kash PatelYes 3c · No 98c
3%Brandon JohnsonYes 4c · No 99c
3%Joe BidenYes 2c · No 99c
2%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market and more than one can settle Yes. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for John Brennan.
Kalshi’s ruleJohn Brennan
If John Brennan is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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