Politics markets on Kalshi.
Officials, appointments, legislation and government actions. Each market settles on the source its rules name, such as an official announcement or the Federal Register.
60 events
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
The 2026 midterms, as Kalshi prices themControl of Congress and every Senate, governor and House race on one page, with when each market pays.
Most traded.
Ranked by contracts traded. The figure on the right is the leading outcome’s chance, read from Kalshi’s prices.
Will the SAVE Act become law before Jan 4, 2027?Yes or Nosettles Jan 4, 202714.9M tradedYes4%Will Donald Trump announce his departure as President?3 outcomessettles Jan 1, 20277.8M tradedBefore January 20, 202927%Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?2 outcomessettles Jan 20, 20295.2M tradedBefore January 20, 202914%Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary before Jan 20, 2029?62 outcomessettles Jan 27, 20294.9M tradedAnna Kelly20%Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?35 outcomessettles Jan 7, 20274.7M tradedRic Grenell65%US-Iran nuclear deal before Jan 20, 20297 outcomessettles Jan 1, 20274.3M tradedBefore Jan 20, 202939%Will the Clarity Act become law before Jan 1, 2028?7 outcomessettles Jan 1, 20274.2M tradedBefore Jan 1, 202820%Will Mitch McConnell resign before the 2026 midterms?Yes or Nosettles Nov 3, 20264.2M tradedYes<1%2026 House popular vote: margin of victory10 outcomessettles Nov 3, 20274.0M tradedDemocrats, 8 to 10%26%Blue wave in 2026Yes or Nosettles Feb 1, 20273.5M tradedYes85%Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?2 outcomessettles Jan 21, 20293.5M tradedBefore January 21, 202921%Will Trump be impeached before 2028?10 outcomessettles Nov 3, 20263.4M tradedBefore Jan 1, 202866%Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?45 outcomessettles Jan 1, 20272.2M tradedIlhan Omar48%Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?Yes or Nosettles Jan 1, 20272.2M tradedYes4%Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Yes or Nosettles Jan 1, 20272.0M tradedYes3%What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?8 outcomessettles Jan 20, 20291.9M tradedCuba4%How much will the US acquire Greenland for?8 outcomessettles Jan 22, 20291.8M traded$0 / No Acquisition90%Will the SAVE America Act become law?5 outcomessettles Jan 1, 20271.7M tradedBefore Jan 1, 202819%Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks before 2027?Yes or Nosettles Jan 1, 20271.5M tradedYes4%Who will be arrested in 2026?25 outcomessettles Jan 1, 20271.4M tradedJohn Brennan30%
Every other Politics event.
With the date each one is expected to settle.
Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota before 2027Jan 8, 2027Will Trump create a $250 bill featuring himself before 2027?Jan 1, 2027Blue tsunami in 2026Feb 1, 2027Will marijuana be rescheduled?Jan 20, 2029Will the US recognize Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader in 2026?Jan 1, 2027Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?Jan 20, 2029Will President Trump be impeached before January 20, 2029?Jan 20, 2029Who will be the next Supreme Court justice by January 20, 2029?Jan 21, 2029Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?Jan 1, 2027Which bills will become law in 2026?Jan 1, 2027Will Ilhan Omar's citizenship be revoked in 2026?Jan 1, 2027Trump's dream year in 2026Dec 31, 2027Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act before Jan 20, 2029?Jan 20, 2029Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?Jan 20, 2029Who will Trump pardon in 2026?Jan 1, 2027What countries will Trump visit in 2026?Jan 1, 2027Will Trump resign during his term?Jan 21, 2029Will credit card rates be capped in 2026?Jan 1, 2027Who will Trump pardon before Jan 21, 2029?Jan 21, 2029When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?Jan 1, 2027Will Donald Trump visit Iran?Jan 1, 2027Will the cap on gambling loss deductions be repealed by 2029?Jan 1, 2027When will Pete Hegseth leave as Secretary of Defense?Jan 1, 2029Will the US acquire any new territory?Jan 21, 2029Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027?Jan 1, 2027Will Trump declare an election emergency?Nov 3, 2026Will Iran become a democracy in 2026?May 30, 2027Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?Jan 1, 2030How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?Jan 7, 2027How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027?Mar 31, 2027Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026?Jan 1, 2027Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended before 2028?Feb 1, 2028Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak before Jan 20, 2029?Jan 20, 2029Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before 2028?Feb 1, 2028Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026?Jan 1, 2027What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?Jan 1, 2027Will the federal gas tax be suspended?Jan 1, 2027How many Supreme Court justices will be confirmed by 2029?Jan 20, 2029How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?Apr 5, 2027Which agencies will Trump eliminate?Jan 20, 2029
Learn the mechanics.
01
How Kalshi settles a market
Kalshi settles each market on its written rules, a named source and a set time. Covers payout timing, ties, fair price, the death rule and disputes.
13 min read02Kalshi odds explained
A Kalshi price in cents is the market's implied chance. How to read YES and NO prices, convert cents to American and decimal odds, and add the fee.
14 min read03How to calculate expected value on a Kalshi contract
A Kalshi contract pays $1 or nothing, so EV is your probability minus the price minus the fee. Worked YES and NO examples, break-even odds and sizing.
12 min read