Who will Trump pardon in 2026?
Larry Householder leads at 18%, followed by John Kiriakou at 14% and Michael Cohen at 13%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
Larry HouseholderYes 21c · No 86c
18%John KiriakouYes 15c · No 88c
14%Michael CohenYes 15c · No 89c
13%Nicole DaedoneYes 15c · No 92c
12%Rachel CherwitzYes 15c · No 93c
11%Keonne RodriguezYes 12c · No 92c
10%Josh WanderYes 14c · No 94c
10%Kimberly GuilfoyleYes 15c · No 95c
10%Tim LeissnerYes 14c · No 96c
9%Robin SmithYes 12c · No 95c
9%Show 26 more outcomes
Sean CombsYes 8c · No 92c
8%Joseph MaldonadoYes 9c · No 94c
8%Torence HatchYes 10c · No 96c
7%Elizabeth HolmesYes 8c · No 95c
7%Steve BannonYes 8c · No 95c
7%Jho LowYes 8c · No 95c
7%Leonard Glenn FrancisYes 11c · No 98c
7%Donald Trump (Himself)Yes 6c · No 94c
6%Bill HwangYes 8c · No 96c
6%Ghislaine MaxwellYes 7c · No 96c
6%Edward SnowdenYes 8c · No 97c
6%Matt BorgesYes 10c · No 99c
6%Kenneth PettyYes 8c · No 98c
5%Julian AssangeYes 6c · No 96c
5%Roger VerYes 6c · No 96c
5%Braden John KaronyYes 9c · No 99c
5%Derek ChauvinYes 5c · No 96c
5%Sam Bankman-FriedYes 6c · No 97c
5%Bob MenendezYes 6c · No 97c
5%Eric AdamsYes 8c · No 99c
5%Aimee BockYes 8c · No 99c
5%Jared KushnerYes 6c · No 98c
4%Nicolás MaduroYes 4c · No 97c
4%Martin ShkreliYes 4c · No 98c
3%Charlie JaviceYes 5c · No 99c
3%Tal AlexanderYes 5c · No 99c
3%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market and more than one can settle Yes. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Larry Householder.
Kalshi’s ruleLarry Householder
If Larry Householder has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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