Will Trump resign during his term?

Kalshi's prices put the chance of Yes at 21%.

Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.

Chance of Yes, from Kalshi’s pricesYes or No market
21%
Yes costs
22c
No costs
80c
A Yes contract pays $1 if the market settles Yes and nothing if it settles No. The chance is the midpoint of the best bid and offer in Kalshi’s public order book.

What settles it.

This market has one rule, shown below.

Kalshi’s ruleYes or No
If the President of the United States elected for the 2025-2029 term resigns the office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.

More politics markets.

Will credit card rates be capped in 2026?Yes or Nosettles Jan 1, 2027476,061 tradedYes4%What countries will Trump visit in 2026?22 outcomessettles Jan 1, 2027519,753 tradedGermany15%Who will Trump pardon before Jan 21, 2029?52 outcomessettles Jan 21, 2029455,260 tradedJared Kushner73%Who will Trump pardon in 2026?36 outcomessettles Jan 1, 2027581,303 tradedLarry Householder18%When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?2 outcomessettles Jan 1, 2027444,550 tradedBefore Jul 1, 202742%Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?Yes or Nosettles Jan 20, 2029614,416 tradedYes22%

EVDESK is research and trading software. It is not a broker, not an exchange, not a fund and not investment advice. Prices and chances on this page are read from Kalshi’s public market data at the time shown and move constantly. Prediction-market trading can lose money. See the Risk Disclosure. Not affiliated with Kalshi, Inc.