When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?
Kalshi's prices put Before Jan 1, 2027 at 12% and Before Jul 1, 2027 at 42%.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance by each dateChance
Before Jan 1, 2027Yes 13c · No 89c
12%Before Jul 1, 2027Yes 42c · No 59c
42%Each date is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Dates run earliest to latest.
What settles it.
Every date uses the same rule with its own deadline in it. The rule below is for Before Jul 1, 2027.
Kalshi’s ruleBefore Jul 1, 2027
If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court Justice before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
More politics markets.
Will Donald Trump visit Iran?2 outcomessettles Jan 1, 2027431,152 tradedBefore Jul 1, 20278%Who will Trump pardon before Jan 21, 2029?52 outcomessettles Jan 21, 2029455,260 tradedJared Kushner73%Will the cap on gambling loss deductions be repealed by 2029?5 outcomessettles Jan 1, 2027404,587 tradedBefore Jan 1, 202946%Will credit card rates be capped in 2026?Yes or Nosettles Jan 1, 2027476,061 tradedYes4%When will Pete Hegseth leave as Secretary of Defense?9 outcomessettles Jan 1, 2029381,636 tradedBefore Jan 1, 202988%Will Trump resign during his term?Yes or Nosettles Jan 21, 2029500,179 tradedYes21%