Will the cap on gambling loss deductions be repealed by 2029?
Kalshi's prices put Before Jan 1, 2027 at 19% and Before Jan 1, 2029 at 46%.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance by each dateChance
Before Jan 1, 2027Yes 20c · No 82c
19%Before Apr 1, 2027Yes 24c · No 82c
21%Before Sep 1, 2027Yes 37c · No 71c
33%Before Jan 1, 2028Yes 44c · No 63c
41%Before Jan 1, 2029Yes 49c · No 57c
46%Each date is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Dates run earliest to latest.
What settles it.
Every date uses the same rule with its own deadline in it. The rule below is for Before Jan 1, 2029.
Kalshi’s ruleBefore Jan 1, 2029
If a bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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