Will the US acquire any new territory?
Kalshi's prices put Before Jan 2027 at 6% and Before Jan 21, 2029 at 27%.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance by each dateChance
Before Jan 2027Yes 8c · No 96c
6%Before Jan 2028Yes 18c · No 83c
18%Before Jan 21, 2029Yes 28c · No 75c
27%Each date is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Dates run earliest to latest.
What settles it.
Every date uses the same rule with its own deadline in it. The rule below is for Before Jan 21, 2029.
Kalshi’s ruleBefore Jan 21, 2029
If the United States gains control of any territory outside its sovereignty as of Issuance before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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