When will Pete Hegseth leave as Secretary of Defense?
Kalshi's prices put Before Nov 1, 2026 at <1% and Before Jan 1, 2029 at 88%.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance by each dateChance
Before Nov 1, 2026Yes 1c
<1%Before Dec 1, 2026Yes 25c · No 79c
23%Before Feb 1, 2027Yes 52c · No 50c
51%Before Apr 1, 2027Yes 65c · No 36c
65%Before Jul 1, 2027Yes 71c · No 34c
69%Before Oct 1, 2027Yes 74c · No 32c
71%Before Jan 1, 2028Yes 79c · No 23c
78%Before Jul 1, 2028Yes 84c · No 20c
82%Before Jan 1, 2029Yes 92c · No 17c
88%Each date is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Dates run earliest to latest.
What settles it.
Every date uses the same rule with its own deadline in it. The rule below is for Before Jan 1, 2029.
Kalshi’s ruleBefore Jan 1, 2029
If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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