Will Iran become a democracy in 2026?
Kalshi's prices put the chance of Yes at 3%.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes, from Kalshi’s pricesYes or No market
3%
- Yes costs
- 3c
- No costs
- 98c
A Yes contract pays $1 if the market settles Yes and nothing if it settles No. The chance is the midpoint of the best bid and offer in Kalshi’s public order book.
What settles it.
This market has one rule, shown below.
Kalshi’s ruleYes or No
If Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index is at least 6.00 as published in the EIU Democracy Index 2026 report, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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