How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027?
No strike crosses 50%. The closest is At least $50 billion at 4%, from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes at each strikeChance
At least $50 billionYes 6c · No 98c
4%At least 250 billionYes 5c · No 97c
4%At least 500 billionYes 4c · No 98c
3%At least 750 billionYes 4c · No 98c
3%At least 1 trillionYes 4c · No 97c
4%At least 2 trillionYes 5c · No 98c
4%Each strike is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Strikes run low to high.
What settles it.
Every strike uses the same rule with its own number in it. The rule below is for At least $50 billion.
Kalshi’s ruleAt least $50 billion
If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $50 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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