Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?
Kalshi's prices put Before Jan 1, 2027 at 3% and Before Jan 1, 2030 at 36%.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance by each dateChance
Before Jan 1, 2027Yes 4c · No 99c
3%Before Jan 1, 2028Yes 17c · No 98c
10%Before Jan 1, 2029Yes 30c · No 72c
29%Before Jan 1, 2030Yes 37c · No 66c
36%Each date is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Dates run earliest to latest.
What settles it.
Every date uses the same rule with its own deadline in it. The rule below is for Before Jan 1, 2030.
Kalshi’s ruleBefore Jan 1, 2030
If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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