Who will Trump pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
Jared Kushner leads at 73%, followed by Eric Trump at 66% and Donald Trump Jr. at 63%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
Jared KushnerYes 73c · No 28c
73%Eric TrumpYes 66c · No 35c
66%Donald Trump Jr.Yes 64c · No 38c
63%Pete HegsethYes 60c · No 42c
59%Donald TrumpYes 57c · No 45c
56%Barron TrumpYes 55c · No 47c
54%Scott BessentYes 48c · No 58c
45%Susie WilesYes 48c · No 61c
44%Keonne RodriguezYes 47c · No 61c
43%Todd BlancheYes 45c · No 60c
43%Show 42 more outcomes
JD VanceYes 44c · No 60c
42%Torence HatchYes 44c · No 61c
42%Bill HwangYes 44c · No 66c
39%Elon MuskYes 40c · No 63c
39%Elizabeth HolmesYes 42c · No 67c
38%Pam BondiYes 41c · No 67c
37%Robin SmithYes 41c · No 68c
37%Prakazrel MichelYes 38c · No 66c
36%Jho LowYes 38c · No 66c
36%Steve BannonYes 39c · No 68c
36%Eric AdamsYes 37c · No 66c
36%Marco RubioYes 38c · No 70c
34%Ghislaine MaxwellYes 35c · No 68c
34%Tim LeissnerYes 37c · No 71c
33%Sam Bankman-FriedYes 34c · No 72c
31%Sean CombsYes 30c · No 72c
29%Edward SnowdenYes 30c · No 73c
29%Julian AssangeYes 32c · No 76c
28%Martin ShkreliYes 33c · No 77c
28%Larry HouseholderYes 32c · No 77c
28%Derek ChauvinYes 30c · No 77c
27%Kisean AndersonYes 30c · No 79c
26%Pete RoseYes 25c · No 77c
24%Bob MenendezYes 25c · No 79c
23%Justin SunYes 26c · No 83c
22%Do KwonYes 26c · No 84c
21%Joe GiudiceYes 26c · No 84c
21%Tou ThaoYes 24c · No 85c
20%Joseph MaldonadoYes 22c · No 86c
18%Matt BorgesYes 19c · No 89c
15%Leon StantonYes 19c · No 91c
14%Safaree SamuelsYes 18c · No 91c
14%Brian Cole Jr.Yes 14c · No 88c
13%Daniel HaleYes 16c · No 91c
13%Alex MashinskyYes 13c · No 92c
11%Jeffery WilliamsYes 13c · No 92c
11%Ty GarbinYes 11c · No 92c
10%Sebastian TelfairYes 14c · No 95c
10%Jose MuyetYes 12c · No 95c
9%Roger VerYes 9c · No 93c
8%Hunter BidenYes 8c · No 98c
5%DeAndre WayYes 6c · No 96c
5%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market and more than one can settle Yes. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Jared Kushner.
Kalshi’s ruleJared Kushner
If Jared Kushner has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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