Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act before Jan 20, 2029?
Kalshi's prices put Before Dec 1, 2026 at 12% and Before Jan 20, 2029 at 48%.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance by each dateChance
Before Dec 1, 2026Yes 17c · No 94c
12%Before Jan 1, 2027Yes 20c · No 81c
20%Before Jan 1, 2028Yes 54c · No 67c
53%Before Jan 20, 2029Yes 48c · No 53c
48%Each date is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Dates run earliest to latest.
What settles it.
Every date uses the same rule with its own deadline in it. The rule below is for Before Jan 20, 2029.
Kalshi’s ruleBefore Jan 20, 2029
If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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