Which bills will become law in 2026?
Export-control chip security leads at 37%, followed by Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions at 24% and College sports federalization at 22%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
Export-control chip securityYes 38c · No 64c
37%Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictionsYes 27c · No 79c
24%College sports federalizationYes 22c · No 79c
22%Data center utility cost protectionYes 19c · No 85c
17%Hot Rotisserie Chicken ActYes 17c · No 87c
15%AI-chip export licensingYes 13c · No 88c
13%FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)Yes 13c · No 89c
12%Railway safety billYes 15c · No 93c
11%Fort Bragg → Fort LibertyYes 12c · No 92c
10%ADS-B revenue-use restrictionYes 15c · No 95c
10%Show 20 more outcomes
NO FAKES ActYes 11c · No 93c
9%E15 year-round salesYes 11c · No 95c
8%Credit-card routing competitionYes 10c · No 94c
8%White House ballroom fundingYes 10c · No 95c
8%$2.50 CoinYes 8c · No 94c
7%Critical-minerals stockpileYes 8c · No 94c
7%JAWBONE ActYes 7c · No 94c
7%ROTOR ActYes 9c · No 97c
6%Jewish American securityYes 7c · No 95c
6%Insulin cost capYes 9c · No 97c
6%Dignity ActYes 7c · No 96c
6%Film/TV production expensingYes 8c · No 97c
6%Electric vehicle Highway Trust Fund feeYes 7c · No 97c
5%SHOWER ActYes 7c · No 99c
4%Surface transportation reauthorizationYes 5c · No 97c
4%Trump AirportYes 5c · No 98c
4%Smithsonian Women’s History MuseumYes 5c · No 98c
4%SELF DRIVE ActYes 4c · No 99c
3%DEFIANCE ActYes 3c · No 98c
3%Trump's Birthday as a federal holidayYes 4c
2%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market and more than one can settle Yes. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Export-control chip security.
Kalshi’s ruleExport-control chip security
If legislation that requires location-verification security mechanisms on certain advanced chips before export has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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