Who will be the next Supreme Court justice by January 20, 2029?
Ted Cruz, Andrew Oldham and D. John Sauer lead at 12% each, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
Ted CruzYes 14c · No 91c
12%Andrew OldhamYes 12c · No 89c
12%D. John SauerYes 12c · No 89c
12%James HoYes 9c · No 92c
9%Aileen CannonYes 7c · No 93c
7%Emil BoveYes 4c · No 96c
4%Michael ParkYes 5c · No 97c
4%Mike LeeYes 5c · No 99c
3%Neomi RaoYes 3c · No 98c
3%Amul ThaparYes 2c · No 99c
2%Show 31 more outcomes
Lawrence VanDykeYes 2c · No 99c
2%Barbara LagoaYes 2c · No 99c
2%Patrick BumatayYes 2c · No 99c
2%Allison Jones RushingYes 2c · No 99c
2%Steven MenashiYes 2c · No 99c
2%Gregory G. KatsasYes 1c · No 99c
1%Kevin NewsomYes 1c · No 99c
1%Kathryn MizelleYes 1c · No 99c
1%David StrasYes 2c
1%Ron DeSantisYes 1c
<1%Kenneth LeeYes 1c
<1%Matthew SchwartzYes 1c
<1%Eric TungYes 1c
<1%Yaakov RothYes 1c
<1%Anna St. JohnYes 1c
<1%Stephanos BibasYes under 1c
<1%Morse TanYes under 1c
<1%Joan LarsenYes under 1c
<1%Kate Comerford ToddYes under 1c
<1%Britt GrantYes under 1c
<1%Tom CottonYes under 1c
<1%Kristen WaggonerYes under 1c
<1%Matthew KacsmarykYes under 1c
<1%Clint BolickYes under 1c
<1%Stuart Kyle DuncanYes under 1c
<1%Allison EidYes under 1c
<1%Mark MartinYes under 1c
<1%Patrick WyrickYes under 1c
<1%Evan YoungYes under 1c
<1%Trevor McFaddenYes under 1c
<1%Kevin BrobsonYes under 1c
<1%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the chances can add up to more than 100%.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Ted Cruz.
Kalshi’s ruleTed Cruz
If Ted Cruz is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
More politics markets.
Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?4 outcomessettles Jan 1, 2027707,491 tradedBefore Apr 1, 202734%Will President Trump be impeached before January 20, 2029?Yes or Nosettles Jan 20, 2029773,009 tradedYes70%Which bills will become law in 2026?30 outcomessettles Jan 1, 2027654,345 tradedExport-control chip security37%Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?Yes or Nosettles Jan 20, 2029792,192 tradedYes21%Will Ilhan Omar's citizenship be revoked in 2026?Yes or Nosettles Jan 1, 2027645,371 tradedYes6%Will the US recognize Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader in 2026?Yes or Nosettles Jan 1, 20271.1M tradedYes6%