What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
Uruguay leads at 99%, followed by Peru at 96% and Argentina at 93%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
UruguayYes 99c · No 2c
99%PeruYes 99c · No 7c
96%ArgentinaYes 97c · No 11c
93%PortugalYes 18c · No 89c
15%MexicoYes 16c · No 91c
13%BrazilYes 15c · No 92c
12%UkraineYes 6c · No 95c
6%JordanYes 8c · No 98c
5%PhilippinesYes 7c · No 98c
5%IsraelYes 6c · No 98c
4%Show 2 more outcomes
South SudanYes 6c · No 98c
4%USAYes 4c · No 97c
4%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market and more than one can settle Yes. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Uruguay.
Kalshi’s ruleUruguay
If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Uruguay before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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