How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?
No strike crosses 50%. The closest is Above 30 at 13%, from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes at each strikeChance
Above 30Yes 13c · No 88c
13%Above 40Yes 13c · No 88c
13%Above 50Yes 11c · No 90c
11%Above 60Yes 10c · No 94c
8%Above 70Yes 6c · No 97c
5%Above 80Yes 5c · No 98c
4%4 higher strikes, each under 3%
Above 90Yes 3c · No 98c
3%Above 100Yes 3c · No 98c
3%Above 110Yes 2c · No 99c
2%Above 120Yes 2c
1%Each strike is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Strikes run low to high.
What settles it.
Every strike uses the same rule with its own number in it. The rule below is for Above 30.
Kalshi’s ruleAbove 30
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 30 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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