Which agencies will Trump eliminate?

USAID (United States Agency for International Development) leads at 15%, followed by EPA at 12% and IRS at 7%, from Kalshi’s prices.

Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.

Chance of each outcomeChance
USAID (United States Agency for International Development)Yes 17c · No 88c
15%
EPAYes 13c · No 90c
12%
IRSYes 7c · No 94c
7%
NASAYes 7c · No 98c
5%
Each outcome is its own Kalshi market and more than one can settle Yes. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer.

What settles it.

Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for USAID (United States Agency for International Development).

Kalshi’s ruleUSAID (United States Agency for International Development)
If USAID is eliminated before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.

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