What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?
Cuba leads at 4%, followed by Venezuela at 3% and Puerto Rico at 2%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
CubaYes 4c · No 97c
4%VenezuelaYes 3c · No 98c
3%Puerto RicoYes 2c · No 98c
2%GreenlandYes 2c · No 99c
2%CanadaYes 2c · No 99c
2%District of ColumbiaYes 1c
<1%GuamYes 1c
<1%ColombiaYes under 1c
<1%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the chances can add up to more than 100%.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Cuba.
Kalshi’s ruleCuba
If the 51st state is any part of Cuba before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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