How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
The likeliest range is $0 / No Acquisition at 90%, from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each rangeChance
$0 / No AcquisitionYes 90c · No 10c
90%$1 billion to $9 billionYes 2c
1%$10 billion to $99 billionYes 3c · No 99c
2%$100 billion to $299 billionYes 4c · No 99c
3%$300 billion to $599 billionYes 3c · No 99c
2%$600 billion to $899 billionYes 4c · No 99c
3%$900 billion to $1,199 billionYes 1c
<1%$1.2 trillion or moreYes 1c
<1%Each range is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the ranges can add up to slightly more or less than 100%.
What settles it.
Every range uses the same rule with its own numbers in it. The rule below is for $0 / No Acquisition.
Kalshi’s rule$0 / No Acquisition
If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is exactly $0 / No Acquisition during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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