Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Kalshi's prices put the chance of Yes at 3%.

Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.

Chance of Yes, from Kalshi’s pricesYes or No market
3%
Yes costs
3c
No costs
98c
A Yes contract pays $1 if the market settles Yes and nothing if it settles No. The chance is the midpoint of the best bid and offer in Kalshi’s public order book.

What settles it.

This market has one rule, shown below.

Kalshi’s ruleYes or No
If Reza Pahlavi is appointed, elected, named, designated, or succeeded to the position as the head of state or government of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.

More politics markets.

What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?8 outcomessettles Jan 20, 20291.9M tradedCuba4%Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?Yes or Nosettles Jan 1, 20272.2M tradedYes4%How much will the US acquire Greenland for?8 outcomessettles Jan 22, 20291.8M traded$0 / No Acquisition90%Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?45 outcomessettles Jan 1, 20272.2M tradedIlhan Omar48%Will the SAVE America Act become law?5 outcomessettles Jan 1, 20271.7M tradedBefore Jan 1, 202819%Will Trump be impeached before 2028?10 outcomessettles Nov 3, 20263.4M tradedBefore Jan 1, 202866%

EVDESK is research and trading software. It is not a broker, not an exchange, not a fund and not investment advice. Prices and chances on this page are read from Kalshi’s public market data at the time shown and move constantly. Prediction-market trading can lose money. See the Risk Disclosure. Not affiliated with Kalshi, Inc.