US-Iran nuclear deal before Jan 20, 2029
Before Jan 20, 2029 leads at 39%, followed by Before 2028 at 31% and Before March 2027 at 17%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
Before Jan 20, 2029Yes 40c · No 62c
39%Before 2028Yes 34c · No 72c
31%Before March 2027Yes 18c · No 84c
17%Before February 2027Yes 14c · No 87c
14%Before 2027Yes 9c · No 91c
9%Before DecemberYes 10c · No 92c
9%Before NovemberYes 1c
<1%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market and more than one can settle Yes. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Before Jan 20, 2029.
Kalshi’s ruleBefore Jan 20, 2029
If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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