2026 House popular vote: margin of victory
The likeliest range is Democrats, 8 to 10% at 26%, from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each rangeChance
Republicans winYes 6c · No 95c
6%Democrats, 0 to 2%Yes 1c · No 99c
1%Democrats, 2 to 4%Yes 3c · No 97c
3%Democrats, 4 to 6%Yes 5c · No 96c
5%Democrats, 6 to 8%Yes 15c · No 86c
15%Democrats, 8 to 10%Yes 26c · No 75c
26%Democrats, 10 to 12%Yes 25c · No 76c
25%Democrats, 12 to 14%Yes 14c · No 87c
14%Democrats, 14 to 16%Yes 5c · No 96c
5%Democrats, 16% and aboveYes 4c · No 97c
4%Each range is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the ranges can add up to slightly more or less than 100%.
What settles it.
Every range uses the same rule with its own numbers in it. The rule below is for Democrats, 8 to 10%.
Kalshi’s ruleDemocrats, 8 to 10%
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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