Will Mitch McConnell resign before the 2026 midterms?
Kalshi's prices put the chance of Yes at <1%.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes, from Kalshi’s pricesYes or No market
<1%
- Yes costs
- 1c
- No costs
- no offer
A Yes contract pays $1 if the market settles Yes and nothing if it settles No. The chance is the midpoint of the best bid and offer in Kalshi’s public order book.
What settles it.
This market has one rule, shown below.
Kalshi’s ruleYes or No
If Mitch McConnell has resigned, retired, or otherwise voluntarily stepped down from their Congressional office, or announced their intent to resign, retire, or otherwise voluntarily step down from their office prematurely, after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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