The 2026 midterms, as Kalshi prices them.
Every Senate, governor and House race Kalshi lists, with the chance of each party winning as Kalshi’s prices put it. Election day is November 3, 2026. The closest races come first.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Who controls Congress.
Each chance is the midpoint of that side’s own Kalshi market, so the two can add up to slightly more or less than 100%.
Control of the House
Kalshi’s prices favor Democrats. Expected to settle Feb 1, 2027. Odds, cost and rules
Control of the Senate
Kalshi’s prices favor Democrats. Expected to settle Feb 1, 2027. Odds, cost and rules
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Senate races.
34 races on Kalshi. Prices favor Democrats in 19 and Republicans in 15. Closest first.
| Race | Democratic | Split | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | 53% | 48% | |
| Iowa | 45% | 56% | |
| Maine | 68% | 32% | |
| Alaska | 69% | 32% | |
| Ohio (special) | 71% | 30% | |
| Texas | 72% | 29% | |
| South Carolina | 28% | 73% | |
| Michigan | 76% | 26% | |
| Nebraska | <1% | 66% | |
| Mississippi | 12% | 89% | |
| Florida (special) | 11% | 90% | |
| Minnesota | 90% | 10% | |
| New Hampshire | 92% | 8% | |
| Montana | <1% | 89% | |
| Arkansas | 6% | 95% | |
| Louisiana | 4% | 97% | |
| North Carolina | 97% | 4% | |
| Tennessee | 3% | 97% | |
| Georgia | 97% | 3% | |
| South Dakota | <1% | 95% | |
| Oklahoma | 3% | 97% | |
| Idaho | <1% | 95% | |
| Alabama | 2% | 98% | |
| New Jersey | 98% | 3% | |
| Colorado | 98% | 2% | |
| Oregon | 98% | 2% | |
| West Virginia | 2% | 98% | |
| Illinois | 99% | 2% | |
| New Mexico | 99% | 2% | |
| Virginia | 99% | 2% | |
| Wyoming | 2% | 99% | |
| Delaware | 99% | 2% | |
| Massachusetts | 99% | 2% | |
| Rhode Island | 99% | 1% |
In Nebraska, Kalshi also lists a candidate from neither party, so the two shares add to well under 100%. The race page shows every outcome.
Call every Senate race. See your odds.
Pick a winner in as many races as you like. EVDESK multiplies the chance of each pick from Kalshi’s prices. If every favorite wins, that comes to 0.85%. The arithmetic treats each race as independent, and they are not: one national swing moves many races together, so a map that breaks one way is likelier than this number.
Governor races.
33 races on Kalshi. Prices favor Democrats in 21 and Republicans in 12. Closest first.
| Race | Democratic | Split | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 38% | 63% | |
| Georgia | 66% | 35% | |
| Florida | 32% | 69% | |
| Vermont | 26% | 75% | |
| Nevada | 78% | 25% | |
| Oregon | 80% | 21% | |
| Ohio | 81% | 20% | |
| Wisconsin | 83% | 18% | |
| Nebraska | 16% | 85% | |
| Iowa | 86% | 16% | |
| Oklahoma | 10% | 90% | |
| Arizona | 91% | 9% | |
| South Carolina | 8% | 93% | |
| Alabama | 7% | 94% | |
| Michigan | 94% | 6% | |
| Tennessee | 6% | 94% | |
| New Mexico | 94% | 6% | |
| Maine | 96% | 5% | |
| New York | 96% | 4% | |
| Colorado | 97% | 4% | |
| Minnesota | 97% | 4% | |
| California | 97% | 3% | |
| Massachusetts | 97% | 3% | |
| South Dakota | 3% | 98% | |
| Arkansas | 3% | 98% | |
| Connecticut | 98% | 3% | |
| Rhode Island | 96% | 1% | |
| Idaho | 2% | 98% | |
| Hawaii | 98% | 2% | |
| Illinois | 98% | 2% | |
| Pennsylvania | 98% | 2% | |
| Wyoming | 2% | 98% | |
| Maryland | 99% | 2% |
The closest House races.
Kalshi lists 409 House races. Prices favor Democrats in 222 and Republicans in 187. These are the 25 closest.
| Race | Democratic | Split | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| WI-01 | 52% | 49% | |
| SC-01 | 48% | 54% | |
| PA-01 | 54% | 46% | |
| KY-06 | 56% | 45% | |
| ME-02 | 45% | 56% | |
| AL-02 | 44% | 57% | |
| CO-05 | 44% | 57% | |
| NC-03 | 44% | 57% | |
| TX-23 | 44% | 57% | |
| MT-01 | 60% | 41% | |
| VA-05 | 42% | 61% | |
| NV-02 | 41% | 61% | |
| MI-04 | 62% | 40% | |
| MN-01 | 39% | 62% | |
| NY-17 | 62% | 39% | |
| CO-03 | 38% | 63% | |
| OH-15 | 38% | 63% | |
| CO-04 | 38% | 64% | |
| MO-02 | 36% | 65% | |
| VA-01 | 65% | 36% | |
| AZ-02 | 35% | 65% | |
| FL-27 | 36% | 66% | |
| FL-07 | 35% | 66% | |
| OH-10 | 35% | 67% | |
| FL-09 | 34% | 67% |
All 409 House races
| Race | Democratic | Split | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| WI-01 | 52% | 49% | |
| SC-01 | 48% | 54% | |
| PA-01 | 54% | 46% | |
| KY-06 | 56% | 45% | |
| ME-02 | 45% | 56% | |
| AL-02 | 44% | 57% | |
| CO-05 | 44% | 57% | |
| NC-03 | 44% | 57% | |
| TX-23 | 44% | 57% | |
| MT-01 | 60% | 41% | |
| VA-05 | 42% | 61% | |
| NV-02 | 41% | 61% | |
| MI-04 | 62% | 40% | |
| MN-01 | 39% | 62% | |
| NY-17 | 62% | 39% | |
| CO-03 | 38% | 63% | |
| OH-15 | 38% | 63% | |
| CO-04 | 38% | 64% | |
| MO-02 | 36% | 65% | |
| VA-01 | 65% | 36% | |
| AZ-02 | 35% | 65% | |
| FL-27 | 36% | 66% | |
| FL-07 | 35% | 66% | |
| OH-10 | 35% | 67% | |
| FL-09 | 34% | 67% | |
| NC-13 | 34% | 67% | |
| NY-21 | 34% | 67% | |
| FL-13 | 33% | 68% | |
| NC-09 | 33% | 68% | |
| NJ-02 | 31% | 70% | |
| FL-22 | 71% | 30% | |
| MI-10 | 72% | 29% | |
| FL-14 | 72% | 28% | |
| IA-02 | 73% | 28% | |
| MI-07 | 76% | 25% | |
| FL-16 | 25% | 77% | |
| NC-07 | 24% | 76% | |
| NC-14 | 25% | 77% | |
| NE-01 | 24% | 77% | |
| FL-04 | 22% | 80% | |
| NY-01 | 22% | 80% | |
| NY-02 | 21% | 79% | |
| KS-02 | 21% | 81% | |
| OH-09 | 81% | 20% | |
| FL-25 | 81% | 19% | |
| AR-02 | 19% | 83% | |
| PA-10 | 83% | 18% | |
| WA-05 | 18% | 84% | |
| TN-09 | 17% | 84% | |
| AZ-01 | 84% | 17% | |
| MN-08 | 17% | 84% | |
| FL-12 | 17% | 85% | |
| FL-26 | 16% | 85% | |
| GA-12 | 16% | 85% | |
| IN-05 | 16% | 85% | |
| OH-07 | 85% | 16% | |
| NC-05 | 16% | 86% | |
| MD-01 | 16% | 86% | |
| NC-01 | 86% | 16% | |
| AZ-08 | 16% | 86% | |
| CO-08 | 86% | 15% | |
| IA-03 | 85% | 15% | |
| AZ-05 | 15% | 87% | |
| FL-11 | 15% | 87% | |
| PA-07 | 87% | 15% | |
| MI-01 | 14% | 87% | |
| SC-02 | 13% | 87% | |
| WI-08 | 13% | 88% | |
| FL-21 | 12% | 89% | |
| PA-08 | 89% | 12% | |
| WI-03 | 89% | 12% | |
| AZ-06 | 89% | 12% | |
| NC-06 | 12% | 89% | |
| TN-05 | 11% | 89% | |
| TX-15 | 90% | 11% | |
| TX-34 | 90% | 11% | |
| WA-03 | 90% | 11% | |
| NY-03 | 90% | 11% | |
| OK-05 | 11% | 90% | |
| WA-04 | 11% | 90% | |
| VA-02 | 91% | 10% | |
| FL-02 | 10% | 91% | |
| CA-22 | 91% | 9% | |
| GA-01 | 10% | 92% | |
| IA-01 | 91% | 9% | |
| TX-10 | 9% | 92% | |
| WI-06 | 9% | 92% | |
| FL-18 | 9% | 92% | |
| NY-11 | 9% | 92% | |
| NE-02 | 92% | 8% | |
| NY-04 | 93% | 8% | |
| OH-08 | 8% | 93% | |
| FL-28 | 8% | 93% | |
| GA-07 | 8% | 93% | |
| NJ-04 | 8% | 93% | |
| NM-02 | 93% | 8% | |
| FL-15 | 7% | 93% | |
| VA-06 | 7% | 93% | |
| NJ-07 | 93% | 7% | |
| CA-45 | 93% | 7% | |
| TX-28 | 93% | 7% | |
| TX-31 | 7% | 94% | |
| CA-05 | 7% | 94% | |
| CA-48 | 94% | 7% | |
| NC-10 | 7% | 94% | |
| SC-05 | 7% | 94% | |
| TX-02 | 7% | 94% | |
| TX-03 | 7% | 94% | |
| FL-05 | 6% | 94% | |
| PA-16 | 6% | 94% | |
| TX-24 | 6% | 94% | |
| CA-13 | 95% | 6% | |
| MN-02 | 94% | 5% | |
| MN-06 | 6% | 95% | |
| OH-01 | 95% | 6% | |
| PA-11 | 6% | 95% | |
| TX-38 | 6% | 95% | |
| FL-03 | 5% | 95% | |
| FL-08 | 6% | 95% | |
| NC-08 | 5% | 94% | |
| WI-07 | 5% | 95% | |
| CA-01 | 95% | 5% | |
| CA-21 | 96% | 6% | |
| NV-03 | 95% | 5% | |
| SC-07 | 5% | 95% | |
| TX-14 | 5% | 95% | |
| TX-22 | 5% | 95% | |
| GA-11 | 5% | 96% | |
| IL-08 | 95% | 5% | |
| OK-01 | 5% | 96% | |
| SC-04 | 5% | 96% | |
| GA-03 | 5% | 96% | |
| IL-17 | 96% | 5% | |
| LA-06 | 5% | 96% | |
| MN-07 | 5% | 96% | |
| NH-02 | 96% | 5% | |
| NY-24 | 5% | 96% | |
| OH-12 | 5% | 96% | |
| PA-15 | 5% | 96% | |
| RI-02 | 96% | 5% | |
| TN-02 | 5% | 96% | |
| CA-03 | 96% | 4% | |
| FL-19 | 4% | 96% | |
| IN-02 | 5% | 96% | |
| KS-01 | 4% | 96% | |
| NH-01 | 96% | 4% | |
| NV-01 | 96% | 4% | |
| OH-05 | 4% | 96% | |
| OK-04 | 4% | 96% | |
| TN-06 | 5% | 96% | |
| TX-11 | 4% | 96% | |
| TX-25 | 4% | 96% | |
| AL-05 | 4% | 96% | |
| FL-06 | 4% | 96% | |
| IL-01 | 96% | 4% | |
| KS-04 | 4% | 96% | |
| MI-03 | 96% | 4% | |
| MI-05 | 4% | 96% | |
| NY-18 | 96% | 4% | |
| NY-19 | 96% | 4% | |
| OH-13 | 96% | 4% | |
| TN-07 | 4% | 96% | |
| TX-36 | 4% | 96% | |
| AZ-04 | 96% | 4% | |
| IL-12 | 4% | 97% | |
| IL-15 | 4% | 97% | |
| IN-08 | 4% | 96% | |
| KS-03 | 96% | 4% | |
| MA-06 | 97% | 4% | |
| MI-08 | 96% | 4% | |
| MS-04 | 4% | 96% | |
| OR-06 | 96% | 4% | |
| PA-17 | 96% | 4% | |
| TN-08 | 4% | 96% | |
| TX-08 | 4% | 96% | |
| TX-12 | 4% | 97% | |
| VA-07 | 96% | 4% | |
| CA-23 | 4% | 97% | |
| CA-26 | 97% | 4% | |
| CA-41 | 97% | 4% | |
| CT-05 | 97% | 4% | |
| HI-02 | 97% | 4% | |
| ID-02 | 3% | 96% | |
| IL-11 | 97% | 4% | |
| IL-16 | 3% | 96% | |
| IN-03 | 4% | 97% | |
| KY-04 | 4% | 97% | |
| LA-04 | 4% | 97% | |
| MA-03 | 97% | 4% | |
| MO-06 | 4% | 97% | |
| NV-04 | 96% | 3% | |
| OH-14 | 4% | 97% | |
| PA-09 | 4% | 97% | |
| PA-14 | 4% | 97% | |
| TX-04 | 4% | 97% | |
| TX-05 | 4% | 97% | |
| TX-29 | 97% | 4% | |
| UT-04 | 3% | 96% | |
| VA-09 | 4% | 97% | |
| FL-17 | 4% | 97% | |
| MI-11 | 97% | 3% | |
| MO-03 | 4% | 97% | |
| MO-07 | 3% | 97% | |
| NM-03 | 97% | 3% | |
| NY-22 | 97% | 3% | |
| OH-04 | 3% | 97% | |
| OR-04 | 97% | 4% | |
| TX-07 | 97% | 3% | |
| CA-06 | 95% | <1% | |
| CA-50 | 97% | 3% | |
| GA-09 | 3% | 97% | |
| GA-10 | 3% | 97% | |
| ID-01 | 3% | 97% | |
| IL-13 | 97% | 3% | |
| LA-01 | 3% | 97% | |
| LA-03 | 3% | 97% | |
| LA-05 | 3% | 97% | |
| MA-08 | 97% | 3% | |
| MD-05 | 97% | 3% | |
| MD-06 | 97% | 3% | |
| MI-09 | 3% | 97% | |
| MN-05 | 97% | 3% | |
| MO-04 | 3% | 97% | |
| NJ-05 | 97% | 3% | |
| NM-01 | 97% | 3% | |
| NY-23 | 3% | 97% | |
| OH-06 | 3% | 97% | |
| OR-02 | 3% | 97% | |
| PA-04 | 97% | 3% | |
| TX-16 | 97% | 3% | |
| TX-17 | 3% | 97% | |
| TX-19 | 3% | 97% | |
| TX-33 | 98% | 4% | |
| WA-02 | 97% | 3% | |
| WI-04 | 97% | 3% | |
| IL-04 | 95% | <1% | |
| AZ-09 | 3% | 98% | |
| CA-33 | 97% | 3% | |
| CA-39 | 97% | 3% | |
| CA-47 | 98% | 3% | |
| CA-49 | 97% | 3% | |
| FL-01 | 3% | 97% | |
| FL-23 | 97% | 3% | |
| IL-05 | 98% | 3% | |
| IN-04 | 3% | 98% | |
| MN-04 | 98% | 3% | |
| NJ-01 | 97% | 3% | |
| NJ-09 | 97% | 3% | |
| TN-03 | 3% | 97% | |
| TN-04 | 3% | 98% | |
| TX-20 | 97% | 3% | |
| TX-21 | 3% | 97% | |
| WI-05 | 3% | 97% | |
| WV-02 | 3% | 98% | |
| AL-01 | 3% | 98% | |
| AR-01 | 3% | 98% | |
| AR-03 | 3% | 98% | |
| CA-20 | 3% | 98% | |
| CA-25 | 98% | 3% | |
| CT-02 | 97% | 2% | |
| CT-03 | 98% | 3% | |
| IL-03 | 98% | 3% | |
| IL-06 | 98% | 3% | |
| IL-10 | 97% | 2% | |
| IN-01 | 97% | 2% | |
| IN-06 | 3% | 98% | |
| IN-09 | 3% | 98% | |
| MA-09 | 98% | 3% | |
| MI-06 | 98% | 3% | |
| MN-03 | 98% | 3% | |
| MS-01 | 3% | 98% | |
| NC-04 | 98% | 3% | |
| NC-12 | 98% | 3% | |
| NY-26 | 98% | 3% | |
| OH-02 | 3% | 98% | |
| OK-02 | 3% | 98% | |
| RI-01 | 98% | 3% | |
| SC-03 | 3% | 98% | |
| TX-27 | 3% | 98% | |
| AL-07 | 98% | 3% | |
| AR-04 | 3% | 98% | |
| AZ-07 | 98% | 3% | |
| CA-16 | 98% | 2% | |
| CA-31 | 97% | 2% | |
| CO-06 | 98% | 2% | |
| FL-20 | 98% | 2% | |
| FL-24 | 98% | 3% | |
| GA-08 | 2% | 98% | |
| GA-14 | 3% | 98% | |
| KY-03 | 98% | 3% | |
| NJ-03 | 98% | 2% | |
| NY-20 | 98% | 2% | |
| OH-03 | 98% | 2% | |
| OK-03 | 2% | 97% | |
| PA-13 | 2% | 98% | |
| TX-01 | 3% | 98% | |
| TX-06 | 2% | 97% | |
| TX-30 | 98% | 3% | |
| AL-06 | 2% | 98% | |
| CA-17 | 98% | 2% | |
| CA-27 | 98% | 2% | |
| CA-42 | 98% | 2% | |
| CA-44 | 98% | 2% | |
| CA-46 | 98% | 2% | |
| CA-51 | 98% | 2% | |
| CA-52 | 98% | 2% | |
| CO-01 | 98% | 2% | |
| CO-07 | 98% | 2% | |
| CT-04 | 98% | 2% | |
| FL-10 | 98% | 2% | |
| GA-02 | 98% | 2% | |
| GA-04 | 98% | 2% | |
| GA-13 | 98% | 2% | |
| HI-01 | 98% | 2% | |
| IA-04 | 2% | 98% | |
| IL-02 | 98% | 2% | |
| IL-07 | 98% | 2% | |
| KY-02 | 3% | 99% | |
| LA-02 | 98% | 2% | |
| MA-04 | 98% | 2% | |
| MD-03 | 98% | 2% | |
| ME-01 | 98% | 2% | |
| MS-03 | 2% | 98% | |
| MT-02 | 2% | 98% | |
| NE-03 | 2% | 98% | |
| NY-15 | 98% | 2% | |
| OR-01 | 98% | 2% | |
| OR-05 | 98% | 2% | |
| PA-03 | 98% | 2% | |
| PA-05 | 98% | 2% | |
| PA-12 | 98% | 2% | |
| TX-13 | 2% | 98% | |
| TX-18 | 98% | 2% | |
| VA-03 | 98% | 2% | |
| VA-04 | 98% | 2% | |
| VA-08 | 98% | 2% | |
| VA-11 | 98% | 2% | |
| WV-01 | 2% | 98% | |
| CA-08 | 98% | 2% | |
| CA-10 | 98% | 2% | |
| CA-35 | 99% | 2% | |
| CA-38 | 98% | 2% | |
| IL-14 | 98% | 2% | |
| MA-05 | 98% | 2% | |
| MA-07 | 98% | 2% | |
| MD-02 | 99% | 2% | |
| MD-04 | 99% | 2% | |
| MD-08 | 99% | 2% | |
| MI-02 | 2% | 98% | |
| MO-08 | 2% | 98% | |
| NJ-12 | 98% | 2% | |
| NY-07 | 99% | 2% | |
| NY-09 | 99% | 2% | |
| NY-12 | 98% | 2% | |
| NY-16 | 98% | 2% | |
| TX-26 | 2% | 99% | |
| WA-01 | 98% | 2% | |
| WA-09 | 99% | 2% | |
| AL-03 | 2% | 99% | |
| AL-04 | 1% | 98% | |
| AZ-03 | 99% | 2% | |
| CA-02 | 98% | 1% | |
| CA-28 | 98% | 1% | |
| CA-30 | 99% | 2% | |
| CA-36 | 98% | 1% | |
| CA-43 | 99% | 2% | |
| CT-01 | 99% | 2% | |
| IL-09 | 99% | 2% | |
| KY-05 | 1% | 98% | |
| MA-01 | 98% | 1% | |
| MI-12 | 99% | 2% | |
| MS-02 | 99% | 2% | |
| NJ-06 | 98% | 1% | |
| NJ-08 | 98% | 1% | |
| NY-05 | 99% | 2% | |
| NY-06 | 99% | 2% | |
| NY-08 | 99% | 2% | |
| NY-10 | 98% | 1% | |
| NY-14 | 99% | 2% | |
| NY-25 | 99% | 2% | |
| PA-02 | 99% | 2% | |
| PA-06 | 99% | 2% | |
| SC-06 | 99% | 2% | |
| TX-37 | 99% | 2% | |
| WA-06 | 99% | 2% | |
| WA-10 | 99% | 2% | |
| CA-24 | 99% | 2% | |
| CO-02 | 99% | 1% | |
| GA-06 | 99% | 2% | |
| KY-01 | 1% | 99% | |
| MA-02 | 99% | 1% | |
| MD-07 | 99% | 1% | |
| MI-13 | 99% | 1% | |
| NC-02 | 99% | 2% | |
| NJ-11 | 99% | 1% | |
| OH-11 | 99% | 1% | |
| WA-07 | 99% | 1% | |
| WI-02 | 99% | 1% | |
| CA-09 | 99% | <1% | |
| CA-15 | >99% | 2% | |
| GA-05 | 99% | 1% | |
| NJ-10 | 99% | 1% | |
| NY-13 | 99% | 1% | |
| TN-01 | 2% | >99% | |
| CA-18 | 99% | <1% | |
| CA-19 | >99% | 1% | |
| MO-01 | >99% | 1% | |
| OR-03 | >99% | 1% | |
| CA-32 | >99% | <1% |
Seats, margins and sweeps.
The other midterm markets on EVDESK. The figure on the right is the leading outcome’s chance.
Election night decides the race. Not the payout.
A Kalshi election market pays when its own rule is met, and that can be weeks after the votes are counted. These are the dates Kalshi expects each group to settle. Until then the contracts keep trading, and you can sell before settlement.
| Markets | Expected to settle |
|---|---|
| Senate races | Jan 4, 2027 |
| Governor races | Jan 14, 2027 |
| House races | Jan 4, 2027 |
| Control of the House and Senate | Feb 1, 2027 |
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Maine for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Before you trade.
How Kalshi election markets settle
Kalshi can settle a US election market once 4 of 8 news desks call it. If not, it waits for the swearing-in, February 1 or certified results.
13 min read02How to sell a Kalshi contract before it settles
Selling a Kalshi contract early pays the best bid minus the taker fee. How to cash out, what you keep, when holding is worth more, and how to withdraw.
13 min read03How Kalshi settles a market
Kalshi settles each market on its written rules, a named source and a set time. Covers payout timing, ties, fair price, the death rule and disputes.
13 min read04Kalshi fees explained
Kalshi's taker fee is 0.07 × C × P × (1 - P), so the fee on 100 contracts at 50c is $1.75. Fee table by price, maker fees, rounding, deposits.
12 min read