Which party will win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
Abdul El-Sayed is at 76% and Republican Party at 26%, from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance to win, from Kalshi’s prices
Abdul El-SayedYes costs 76c76%
Republican PartyYes costs 26c26%
Each side is its own Kalshi market. Each chance is that market’s midpoint, so the two can add up to slightly more or less than 100%.
What settles it.
Each side has its own market. Both use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Abdul El-Sayed.
Kalshi’s ruleAbdul El-Sayed
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Michigan for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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