Which party will win the MT-01 House race in 2026?
Democratic Party is at 60% and Republican Party at 41%, from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance to win, from Kalshi’s prices
Democratic PartyYes costs 60c60%
Republican PartyYes costs 41c41%
Each side is its own Kalshi market. Each chance is that market’s midpoint, so the two can add up to slightly more or less than 100%.
What settles it.
Each side has its own market. Both use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Democratic Party.
Kalshi’s ruleDemocratic Party
If the House member sworn in for MT-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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