Michigan Senate race 2026: Democratic margin of victory
The 50% line sits between El-Sayed, 2+ pts (63%) and El-Sayed, 3+ pts (47%), from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes at each strikeChance
El-Sayed, 1+ ptsYes 72c · No 30c
71%El-Sayed, 2+ ptsYes 64c · No 38c
63%El-Sayed, 3+ ptsYes 47c · No 54c
47%El-Sayed, 4+ ptsYes 40c · No 61c
40%El-Sayed, 5+ ptsYes 32c · No 69c
32%El-Sayed, 6+ ptsYes 25c · No 76c
25%El-Sayed, 7+ ptsYes 18c · No 83c
18%El-Sayed, 8+ ptsYes 12c · No 89c
12%El-Sayed, 9+ ptsYes 7c · No 94c
7%El-Sayed, 11+ ptsYes 6c · No 96c
5%El-Sayed, 13+ ptsYes 5c · No 99c
3%El-Sayed, 15+ ptsYes 1c · No 99c
1%Each strike is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Strikes run low to high.
What settles it.
Every strike uses the same rule with its own number in it. The rule below is for El-Sayed, 3+ pts.
Kalshi’s ruleEl-Sayed, 3+ pts
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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