Who will win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Mary Peltola leads at 67%, followed by Dan Sullivan (Current incumbent, Republican) at 33% and Daniel J. Sullivan at <1%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
Mary PeltolaYes 67c · No 34c
67%Dan Sullivan (Current incumbent, Republican)Yes 33c · No 68c
33%Daniel J. SullivanYes 1c
<1%Gerald HeikesYes 1c
<1%Ann DienerYes under 1c
<1%Richard GraysonYes under 1c
<1%Sid HillYes under 1c
<1%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the chances can add up to more than 100%.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Mary Peltola.
Kalshi’s ruleMary Peltola
If Mary Peltola wins the 2026 Alaska Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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