Who will win the Alaska Governor race in 2026?

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads at 88%, followed by Bernadette Wilson at 12% and Treg Taylor at <1%, from Kalshi’s prices.

Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.

Chance of each outcomeChance

Jonathan Kreiss-TomkinsYes 88c · No 13c

88%

Bernadette WilsonYes 12c · No 89c

12%

Treg TaylorYes 1c

<1%

Bill WalkerYes 1c

<1%

Lesil McGuireYes 1c

<1%

Tom BegichYes under 1c

<1%

Dave BronsonYes under 1c

<1%

Click BishopYes under 1c

<1%

Adam CrumYes under 1c

<1%

Mary PeltolaYes under 1c

<1%

Show 6 more outcomes

Nancy DahlstromYes under 1c

<1%

Matt HeilalaYes under 1c

<1%

Shelley HughesYes under 1c

<1%

Matthew ClamanYes under 1c

<1%

Edna DeVriesYes under 1c

<1%

Lisa MurkowskiYes under 1c

<1%

Each outcome is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the chances can add up to more than 100%.

What settles it.

Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins.

Kalshi’s ruleJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

If Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is elected the governor of Alaska pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.