Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?
Pete Buttigieg leads at 90%, followed by Andy Beshear at 89% and Rahm Emanuel at 85%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
Pete ButtigiegYes 90c · No 10c
90%Andy BeshearYes 89c · No 12c
89%Rahm EmanuelYes 85c · No 16c
85%J.B. PritzkerYes 85c · No 17c
84%Ro KhannaYes 80c · No 21c
80%Gavin NewsomYes 80c · No 22c
79%Josh ShapiroYes 78c · No 25c
77%Cory BookerYes 76c · No 25c
76%Wes MooreYes 72c · No 29c
72%Mark KellyYes 73c · No 30c
72%Show 28 more outcomes
Chris MurphyYes 70c · No 32c
69%Chris Van HollenYes 67c · No 37c
65%Mitch LandrieuYes 67c · No 39c
64%Alexandria Ocasio-CortezYes 64c · No 39c
63%Kamala HarrisYes 62c · No 40c
61%Jon OssoffYes 61c · No 40c
61%Elissa SlotkinYes 62c · No 41c
61%Raphael WarnockYes 54c · No 50c
52%Ruben GallegoYes 49c · No 52c
49%Jared PolisYes 38c · No 64c
37%Phil MurphyYes 36c · No 65c
36%Shawn FainYes 36c · No 69c
34%Gretchen WhitmerYes 32c · No 69c
32%Dean PhillipsYes 28c · No 79c
25%Mikie SherrillYes 25c · No 77c
24%Abigail SpanbergerYes 25c · No 80c
23%Stephen A. SmithYes 21c · No 81c
20%Hunter BidenYes 16c · No 85c
16%Roy CooperYes 17c · No 88c
15%Mark CubanYes 17c · No 89c
14%Jon StewartYes 14c · No 89c
13%John FettermanYes 15c · No 91c
12%James TalaricoYes 12c · No 90c
11%Michelle ObamaYes 9c · No 92c
9%Amy KlobucharYes 11c · No 97c
7%Tim WalzYes 8c · No 96c
6%Hillary ClintonYes 5c · No 98c
4%Barack ObamaYes 5c · No 99c
3%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market and more than one can settle Yes. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Pete Buttigieg.
Kalshi’s rulePete Buttigieg
If Pete Buttigieg announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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