Texas Senate race 2026: Republican margin of victory
No strike crosses 50%. The closest is Republicans, 1+ pts at 28%, from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes at each strikeChance
Republicans, 1+ ptsYes 29c · No 73c
28%Republicans, 2+ ptsYes 26c · No 76c
25%Republicans, 3+ ptsYes 20c · No 81c
20%Republicans, 4+ ptsYes 15c · No 86c
15%Republicans, 5+ ptsYes 12c · No 89c
12%Republicans, 6+ ptsYes 9c · No 91c
9%Republicans, 7+ ptsYes 7c · No 94c
7%Republicans, 8+ ptsYes 6c · No 95c
6%Republicans, 9+ ptsYes 6c · No 95c
6%Republicans, 11+ ptsYes 4c · No 98c
3%Republicans, 13+ ptsYes 4c
2%Each strike is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Strikes run low to high.
What settles it.
Every strike uses the same rule with its own number in it. The rule below is for Republicans, 1+ pts.
Kalshi’s ruleRepublicans, 1+ pts
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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