Which party will win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
Republican Party leads at 89%, followed by Seth Bodnar (Independent) at 12% and Democratic Party at <1%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
Republican PartyYes 89c · No 12c
89%Seth Bodnar (Independent)Yes 12c · No 89c
12%Democratic PartyYes under 1c
<1%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the chances can add up to more than 100%.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Republican Party.
Kalshi’s ruleRepublican Party
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Montana for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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