Georgia Senate margin of victory on November 3, 2026
The 50% line sits between Democrats, 12+ pts (59%) and Democrats, 13+ pts (42%), from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes at each strikeChance
Democrats, 2+ ptsYes 96c · No 4c
96%Democrats, 3+ ptsYes 96c · No 5c
96%Democrats, 4+ ptsYes 92c · No 8c
92%Democrats, 5+ ptsYes 92c · No 9c
92%Democrats, 6+ ptsYes 90c · No 12c
89%Democrats, 7+ ptsYes 89c · No 15c
87%Democrats, 8+ ptsYes 84c · No 20c
82%Democrats, 9+ ptsYes 81c · No 22c
80%Democrats, 10+ ptsYes 74c · No 28c
73%Democrats, 11+ ptsYes 68c · No 33c
68%Democrats, 12+ ptsYes 60c · No 42c
59%Democrats, 13+ ptsYes 44c · No 60c
42%Democrats, 14+ ptsYes 27c · No 74c
27%Democrats, 15+ ptsYes 18c · No 83c
18%Democrats, 16+ ptsYes 16c · No 88c
14%Democrats, 18+ ptsYes 10c · No 91c
10%Each strike is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Strikes run low to high.
What settles it.
Every strike uses the same rule with its own number in it. The rule below is for Democrats, 13+ pts.
Kalshi’s ruleDemocrats, 13+ pts
If the Democratic Party wins the first round of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia by 13 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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