Maine Senate race 2026: Democratic margin of victory
The 50% line sits between Jackson, 2+ pts (52%) and Jackson, 3+ pts (42%), from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes at each strikeChance
Jackson, 1+ ptsYes 64c · No 39c
63%Jackson, 2+ ptsYes 52c · No 49c
52%Jackson, 3+ ptsYes 42c · No 59c
42%Jackson, 4+ ptsYes 35c · No 66c
35%Jackson, 5+ ptsYes 33c · No 68c
33%Jackson, 6+ ptsYes 25c · No 78c
24%Jackson, 7+ ptsYes 21c · No 82c
20%Jackson, 8+ ptsYes 17c · No 88c
15%Jackson, 9+ ptsYes 13c · No 89c
12%Jackson, 11+ ptsYes 8c · No 94c
7%Jackson, 13+ ptsYes 6c · No 96c
5%Each strike is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Strikes run low to high.
What settles it.
Every strike uses the same rule with its own number in it. The rule below is for Jackson, 2+ pts.
Kalshi’s ruleJackson, 2+ pts
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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