Texas Governor margin of victory
The 50% line sits between Abbott, 2+ pts (60%) and Abbott, 3+ pts (47%), from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes at each strikeChance
Abbott, 1+ ptsYes 61c · No 41c
60%Abbott, 2+ ptsYes 60c · No 41c
60%Abbott, 3+ ptsYes 48c · No 54c
47%Abbott, 4+ ptsYes 43c · No 58c
43%Abbott, 5+ ptsYes 34c · No 68c
33%Abbott, 6+ ptsYes 28c · No 73c
28%Abbott, 7+ ptsYes 21c · No 82c
20%Abbott, 8+ ptsYes 20c · No 83c
19%Abbott, 9+ ptsYes 9c · No 93c
8%Abbott, 12+ ptsYes 6c · No 98c
4%Abbott, 15+ ptsYes 5c · No 99c
3%Abbott, 18+ ptsYes 4c · No 99c
3%Abbott, 21+ ptsYes 5c · No 99c
3%Each strike is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Strikes run low to high.
What settles it.
Every strike uses the same rule with its own number in it. The rule below is for Abbott, 3+ pts.
Kalshi’s ruleAbbott, 3+ pts
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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