Texas Senate race 2026: Democratic margin of victory
The 50% line sits between Democrats, 2+ pts (57%) and Democrats, 3+ pts (48%), from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes at each strikeChance
Democrats, 1+ ptsYes 67c · No 34c
67%Democrats, 2+ ptsYes 57c · No 44c
57%Democrats, 3+ ptsYes 48c · No 53c
48%Democrats, 4+ ptsYes 39c · No 62c
39%Democrats, 5+ ptsYes 31c · No 70c
31%Democrats, 6+ ptsYes 22c · No 79c
22%Democrats, 7+ ptsYes 13c · No 88c
13%Democrats, 8+ ptsYes 10c · No 93c
9%Democrats, 9+ ptsYes 7c · No 95c
6%Each strike is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Strikes run low to high.
What settles it.
Every strike uses the same rule with its own number in it. The rule below is for Democrats, 3+ pts.
Kalshi’s ruleDemocrats, 3+ pts
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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