Which party will win the IA-01 House race in 2026?
Democratic Party leads at 91%, followed by Republican Party at 9% and Independent Party at <1%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
Democratic PartyYes 91c · No 10c
91%Republican PartyYes 9c · No 92c
9%Independent PartyYes 1c
<1%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the chances can add up to more than 100%.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Democratic Party.
Kalshi’s ruleDemocratic Party
If the House member sworn in for IA-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
More election markets.
Which party will win the VA-01 House race in 2026?2 outcomessettles Jan 4, 2027403,086 tradedDemocratic Party65%Which party will win the PA-01 House race in 2026?2 outcomessettles Jan 4, 2027399,332 tradedBob Harvie54%Which party will win the PA-08 House race in 2026?2 outcomessettles Jan 4, 2027390,641 tradedDemocratic Party89%Which party will win the PA-07 House race in 2026?2 outcomessettles Jan 4, 2027374,447 tradedBob Brooks87%Which party will win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?2 outcomessettles Jan 4, 2027428,038 tradedRepublican Party95%Which party will win the Oklahoma Governor race in 2026?2 outcomessettles Jan 14, 2027471,466 tradedRepublican Party90%