Which party will win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?
Republican Party is at 95% and Democratic Party at 6%, from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance to win, from Kalshi’s prices
Republican PartyYes costs 95c95%
Democratic PartyYes costs 6c6%
Each side is its own Kalshi market. Each chance is that market’s midpoint, so the two can add up to slightly more or less than 100%.
What settles it.
Each side has its own market. Both use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Republican Party.
Kalshi’s ruleRepublican Party
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Arkansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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