How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the 2026 midterms?
The likeliest range is Below 45 at 15%, from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each rangeChance
Below 45Yes 15c · No 86c
15%45Yes 11c · No 90c
11%46Yes 12c · No 89c
12%47Yes 13c · No 88c
13%48Yes 13c · No 88c
13%49Yes 10c · No 91c
10%50Yes 9c · No 92c
9%51Yes 7c · No 94c
7%52Yes 8c · No 94c
7%53Yes 4c · No 97c
4%5 higher ranges, each under 3%
54Yes 3c · No 99c
2%55Yes 2c · No 99c
2%56Yes 2c · No 99c
2%57Yes 2c · No 99c
2%Above 57Yes 2c · No 99c
2%Each range is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the ranges can add up to slightly more or less than 100%.
What settles it.
Every range uses the same rule with its own numbers in it. The rule below is for Below 45.
Kalshi’s ruleBelow 45
If the Republican party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
More election markets.
Which party will win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?2 outcomessettles Jan 4, 20275.5M tradedDemocratic (DFL) party90%Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?18 outcomessettles Dec 31, 20266.0M tradedNicolás Maduro81%How many House seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 midterms?12 outcomessettles Feb 1, 20275.0M tradedAbove 24927%Which party will win the New York Governor race in 2026?2 outcomessettles Jan 1, 20276.1M tradedDemocratic Party96%Which party will win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?2 outcomessettles Jan 4, 20274.9M tradedRoy Cooper97%Which party will win the Ohio Governor race in 2026?2 outcomessettles Jan 14, 20276.6M tradedDemocratic Party81%