How many House seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 midterms?
The likeliest range is Above 249 at 27%, from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each rangeChance
Below 210Yes 3c · No 97c
3%210-213Yes 2c · No 98c
2%214-217Yes 3c · No 97c
3%218-221Yes 3c · No 98c
3%222-225Yes 4c · No 96c
4%226-229Yes 6c · No 94c
6%230-233Yes 7c · No 93c
7%234-237Yes 13c · No 88c
13%238-241Yes 13c · No 88c
13%242-245Yes 13c · No 88c
13%246-249Yes 11c · No 90c
11%Above 249Yes 27c · No 74c
27%Each range is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the ranges can add up to slightly more or less than 100%.
What settles it.
Every range uses the same rule with its own numbers in it. The rule below is for Above 249.
Kalshi’s ruleAbove 249
If the Democratic party has above 249 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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