Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
Christopher Luxon leads at 45%, followed by Benjamin Netanyahu (Prime Minister of Israel) and Pedro Sánchez at 19% each, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
Christopher LuxonYes 46c · No 57c
45%Benjamin Netanyahu (Prime Minister of Israel)Yes 19c · No 82c
19%Pedro SánchezYes 19c · No 82c
19%Sébastien LecornuYes 16c · No 85c
16%Miguel Díaz-CanelYes 12c · No 91c
11%Edi RamaYes 12c · No 91c
11%Mohammed bin SalmanYes 10c · No 92c
9%Volodymyr ZelenskyyYes 8c · No 92c
8%Delcy RodriguezYes 8c · No 93c
8%Emmanuel MacronYes 7c · No 94c
7%Show 25 more outcomes
Rodrigo Paz PereiraYes 9c · No 96c
7%Friedrich MerzYes 6c · No 94c
6%Mette FrederiksenYes 6c · No 95c
6%Kim Jong UnYes 6c · No 96c
5%Denis Sassou NguessoYes 6c · No 96c
5%Félix TshisekediYes 6c · No 97c
5%Vladimir PutinYes 4c · No 96c
4%Sanae TakaichiYes 4c · No 97c
4%Ahmad al-SharaaYes 4c · No 97c
4%Recep Tayyip ErdoğanYes 4c · No 97c
4%Lee Jae MyungYes 4c · No 97c
4%Jens-Frederik Nielsen (Prime Minister of Greenland)Yes 5c · No 98c
4%Cyril RamaphosaYes 6c · No 99c
4%Narendra ModiYes 4c · No 97c
4%Xi JinpingYes 3c · No 97c
3%Mark CarneyYes 4c · No 98c
3%Giorgia MeloniYes 4c · No 98c
3%Javier MileiYes 4c · No 98c
3%Daniel NoboaYes 5c · No 99c
3%Claudia SheinbaumYes 3c · No 98c
3%Ramzan KadyrovYes 3c · No 98c
3%Irfaan AliYes 4c · No 99c
3%Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaYes 2c · No 98c
2%Nayib BukeleYes 3c · No 99c
2%Frederik XYes 3c · No 99c
2%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market and more than one can settle Yes. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Christopher Luxon.
Kalshi’s ruleChristopher Luxon
If Christopher Luxon has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of New Zealand or has actually left Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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